Aim We studied dynamics of four populations of New Zealand forest birds for 5–9 years after reintroduction to islands. We primarily aimed to predict whether these populations were viable, and what, if any, management was needed to maintain them. However, the small scale of these islands also provided an opportunity to study density‐dependent population growth over a short time frame. Location We studied New Zealand robin (toutouwai, Petroica australis) and stitchbird (hihi, Notiomystis cincta) populations reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi, a 220‐ha offshore island near Auckland, and saddleback (tieke, Philesturnus carunculatus) and stitchbird populations reintroduced to Mokoia, a 135‐ha island in Lake Rotorua. These islands are free of mammalian predators, but have highly modified habitat following clearing and regeneration. Methods We closely monitored each population, individually marking all or most of the birds and in some cases experimentally manipulated population density or food supply. We used model selection procedures to understand factors affecting survival, fecundity and dispersal, and developed stochastic simulation models. Results The Tiritiri Matangi robin and Mokoia saddleback populations grew without management and appear to be viable. Both showed strong evidence of density‐dependent growth, with fecundity (saddlebacks) and juvenile survival (both populations) declining with increasing density. Neither stitchbird population appears viable without management and supplementation experiments showed reproduction and/or survival to be limited by food supply. The Tiritiri Matangi population appears viable as long as supplementary feeding continues. However, the Mokoia population has a high mortality rate regardless of supplementary feeding, resulting in tenuous viability even with intensive management. Mokoia stitchbirds suffer from infection by Aspergillus fumigatus, a pathogenic fungus that is prevalent in highly modified habitats and more abundant on Mokoia than Tiritiri Matangi. Main conclusions Some forest birds can thrive in regenerating forest on islands and strong evidence of density dependence can be detected in such populations in as little as 5 years. This allows density‐dependent models to be developed, providing guidance when island populations are harvested for further translocations. Other species are limited by food supply in regenerating environments, a problem potentially overcome by management. However, prevalence of A. fumigatus may render highly modified environments uninhabitable by some species regardless of management.

Reintroductions are conducted frequently throughout the world, and some source populations are harvested repeatedly to provide animals for translocation. The responses of these source populations to harvest should be monitored, and the resulting data used to refine population models will guide management. After North Island Robins ( Petroica longipes) were reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi, New Zealand, in 1992, the population became a source for robins for additional reintroductions in the region. We constructed an initial model for the population on the basis of the data collected from 1992 to 1998 and used it to predict the population's response to the first translocation of robins from the island in the autumn (March) of 1999. We then analyzed postharvest data on survival (with mark-recapture analysis) and fecundity (with generalized linear-mixed modeling) to reassess and update the model. In the initial model, juvenile survival was assumed to be limited by the island's fixed carrying capacity, with excess juveniles dying over winter; hence, the autumn harvest was expected to cause an immediate increase in juvenile survival. In postharvest analysis, however, most juvenile mortality occurred before autumn, and the best predictor of juvenile survival was the number of breeding pairs present the previous spring (start of the breeding season). Consequently, the updated population model predicted sustainable harvest levels about half those given by the initial model, and this model has been used to guide the number of individuals removed for two subsequent translocations. The ongoing development of the model has been invaluable for assuring conservation authorities that the population is not being unsustainably harvested, which has allowed surplus animals to be used to establish new populations. Our case study illustrates the value of an adaptive approach to harvesting source populations for reintroduction and illustrates the value of such studies for understanding the density-dependent mechanisms regulating populations.

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N e /N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a N e /N ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331-1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887-1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.

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