General secondary education, rapid higher education developmentSource: Mihneva, 2002.
The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.
In the last 15 years the Russian Federation has been declared an economic obstruction, associated with the attempt of Western countries to oust Russia from the external commodity and financial markets. The embargoes imposed by the West have largely affected the domestic market because of its excessive saturation with imported goods. Import substitution policy initiated by the Government more than 10 years ago could not solve the problem of shortage of high-tech products due to technological backwardness of many enterprises of civil economy, including due to insufficient involvement of domestic science to assist in the development of innovative production. There are also problems in Russian science itself. The main one is underfunding of research as a consequence of weak development of entrepreneurial and state market of orders for scientific products. Most commercial structures prefer to acquire ready-made patents or technologies from foreign firms. There is no optimal mechanism for administrative coordination and financial subsidizing of creative interaction between the three sectors of science to solve problems relevant from the position of domestic and foreign policy. All-Russian studies conducted with the author's participation in 2011–2020 show the positive experience of cooperative interaction between different sectors of science with mixed public-private financing and in the reliance on the technological platform of manufacturing companies. This is the practice for 80% of scientific organizations performing applied research. As for the basic sciences, in this segment close cooperation of academic research institutes is not only possible but also desirable with universities, both in the framework of megaprojects and in the preparation of textbooks for universities.
The Object of the Study. Migration processes in Rossiya.The Subject of the Study. Interdistrict migration links. The Purpose of the Study. Identifying the features of interdistrict migration exchange and justifying adequate indicators for its measurement.The Main Provisions of the Article. The article reveals how and when scientific ideas about the spatial patterns of migration processes that took place in the past and at present appeared, and about the subsequent interpretation of this knowledge and the creation of adequate indicators for their measurement have arisen. The paper shows the importance in the total migration turnover of internal migrations, interregional movements, in particular. Interregional migrations include population movements between administrative and territorial entities. In Rossiya, regions with independent status were adopted as such “migration” entities, i.e. which are subjects of the Russiyskaya Federatsiya. In its turn, migration flows between them break up into smaller interregional flows. All of them, like the general migration flows, differ in their scale, structure, directions and results. The article discusses existing approaches to studying the nature of migration flows, determining their directions and values, it is stressed that as early as at the end of the nineteenth century the idea was expressed about a relationship between population size, distance, as well as the forces of attraction and repulsion. It is noted that in the domestic literature, the clarification of the relationship between migration processes and the factors determining their scope and direction has begun since the 60s of the last century. At the same time, a special indicator has been created to level the influence of different population numbers in different regions on the assessment of the significance of interregional migration flows. The possibilities of using this gauge for present day interregional migrations are shown on the example of two regions of Rossiya with the publication of the matrix of coefficients of interdistrict migration links for 1966-1969 allowing to compare them with the data for 2015-2017 and accordingly confirm the stability of these relationships.
The article provides a brief analysis of the history of the demographic development of Russia, identifies three of its periods over the past four centuries: pre-Soviet, Soviet, and post-Soviet, and shows the key features of demographic dynamics in comparison with the growth of the world population. From the general object (demographic development), its components are distinguished as a subject. In particular, in contrast to the prerevolutionary period of demographic development, when the expansion of the state’s territory played a huge role in population growth, in the Soviet years the natural movement of the population was the main source of demographic dynamics in the USSR and RSFSR. In the post-Soviet period, its place was taken by the migration component. Based on the analysis of official demographic statistics, it is shown that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent socio-economic upheavals have become a factor in the deterioration of the reproduction of the Russian population even more significant than the trends of the 1980s in its demographic development. At the same time, the first factor influenced to a greater extent the dynamics and structure of the mortality of the population, and the second – on the decrease in the birth rate. The features of the post- Soviet period of demographic development are considered in more detail. Their essence is that this is the time of depopulation, the first stage of which was the result of a significant increase in mortality and of a decrease in the birth rate, while the onset of the second stage of depopulation was initiated exclusively by fertility decrease. Since 2020, the mortality component of the population began to play the same role in depopulation as at its first stage. The final part of the article shows, firstly, what Russia can expect in the ongoing downward demographic dynamics, exacerbated by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, and secondly, what are the possible solutions for the recovery of the rising population dynamics.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.