Polar bears are a sea ice‐dependent carnivore, sensitive to sea ice habitat loss. Climate change has negatively affected sea ice habitat through much of this species' range. We applied landscape fragmentation analysis to quantify polar bear sea ice habitat loss and fragmentation trends (1979–2008) in Foxe Basin, Hudson Strait and Hudson Bay, Canada. Microwave satellite derived monthly mean sea ice concentration maps were classified into four habitat quality categories, and the trends in fragmentation metrics were analyzed. In all regions where preferred habitat declined, sea ice season length decreased and habitat fragmentation increased. The observed trends may affect polar bear movement patterns, energetics and ultimately population trends. Monitoring of sea ice habitat condition in combination with harvest data can provide a dynamic approach to population management and conservation.
BackgroundSea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Principal FindingsShifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Conclusions/SignificanceUnder business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.
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