Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000-to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5-10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4-5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.demographic history | hybridization | mammalian genomics | phylogenetics G enome-scale studies of speciation and admixture have become essential tools in evolutionary analyses of recently diverged lineages. For example, paradigm-shifting genomic research on archaic and anatomically modern humans has identified critical gene flow events during hominin history (1, 2). However, aside from several analyses of domesticated species and their wild relatives (e.g., ref.3), studies that use whole-genome sequencing to investigate admixture in wildlife populations are only now beginning to emerge.The bear family (Ursidae, Mammalia) represents an excellent, largely untapped model for investigating complex speciation and rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. Although polar bears (PBs; Ursus maritimus) and brown bears (Ursus arctos) are considered separate species, analyses of fossil evidence and mitochondrial sequence data have indicated a recent divergence of PBs from within brown bears (surveyed in ref. 4). For example, phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial genomes, including from a unique 130,000-to 110,000-y-old PB jawbone from Svalbard, Norway, confirmed a particularly close relationship between PB and a genetically isolated population of brown bears from the Admiralty, Baranof, and Chichagof islands in Alaska's Alexander Archipelago (hereaf...

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite‐collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st‐century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest‐valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985–1995 (baseline) to a projected multi‐model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090–2099 (−68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985–1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090–2099 (−17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi‐model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985–2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long‐distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high‐latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

► Unpublished and published data were compiled for Arctic fish, birds, and mammals. ► These data were compared to available toxicological threshold limits. ► Toothed whales, polar bears, and some bird and fish species exceeded the limits. ► Increasing mercury concentrations are observed for some Arctic species. ► These exceeded thresholds and increasing Hg trends are of concern. a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o This review critically evaluates the available mercury (Hg) data in Arctic marine biota and the Inuit population against toxicity threshold values. In particular marine top predators exhibit concentrations of mercury in their tissues and organs that are believed to exceed thresholds for biological effects. Species whose concentrations exceed threshold values include the polar bears (Ursus maritimus), beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), pilot whale (Globicephala melas), hooded seal (Cystophora cristata), a few seabird species, and landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus). Toothed whales appear to be one of the most vulnerable groups, with high concentrations Science of the Total Environment 443 (2013) [775][776][777][778][779][780][781][782][783][784][785][786][787][788][789][790]

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century.

The relative impacts of intrinsic factors (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., climate) on winter demography may be critical for the generation of different population dynamic patterns (including cyclicity) in northern vole and lemming populations. However, little is known about winter demography because studies with temporal and spatial replication at the population level and an adequate sample of individuals with known fates within each population are rare. In this study, we monitored the winter demography of 48 local tundra vole populations introduced to experimentally enclosed plots the preceding spring for four years in Norway. The rate of population change over the winter (November–May) was density dependent due to recruitment. However, the large variation in the rate of change between the different winters was due to a density‐independent, and most likely a climatically driven, variation in survival rate. In particular, mild weather that led to the formation of ice on the ground seemed to be detrimental for winter survival. We predict that if increased frequency of such events arose, due to climate change, normal cyclic dynamics of northern small rodent populations would be disrupted. We found support for the hypothesis that voles adjusted their body mass toward a certain mean during the winter so as to maximize winter survival. The survival rate of males was lower than that of females, possibly due to their larger body mass, and this resulted in female‐biased population sex ratios in the spring. This result suggests a link between sexual selection (responsible for the sexual size dimorphism) and natural selection (operating though size‐dependent winter survival) with implications for the demographic structure of the population.