At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.

The high Arctic has the world's simplest terrestrial vertebrate predator-prey community, with the collared lemming being the single main prey of four predators, the snowy owl, the Arctic fox, the long-tailed skua, and the stoat. Using a 20-year-long time series of population densities for the five species and a dynamic model that has been previously parameterized for northeast Greenland, we analyzed the population and community level consequences of the ongoing and predicted climate change. Species' responses to climate change are complex, because in addition to the direct effects of climate change, which vary depending on species' life histories, species are also affected indirectly due to, e.g., predator-prey interactions. The lemming-predator community exemplifies these complications, yet a robust conclusion emerges from our modeling: in practically all likely scenarios of how climate change may influence the demography of the species, climate change increases the length of the lemming population cycle and decreases the maximum population densities. The latter change in particular is detrimental to the populations of the predators, which are adapted to make use of the years of the greatest prey abundance. Therefore, climate change will indirectly reduce the predators' reproductive success and population densities, and may ultimately lead to local extinction of some of the predator species. Based on these results, we conclude that the recent anomalous observations about lack of cyclic lemming dynamics in eastern Greenland may well be the first signs of a severe impact of climate change on the lemming-predator communities in Greenland and elsewhere in the high Arctic.

SummaryWe provide the first comparative multispecies analysis of spatial genetic structure and diversity in the circumpolar Arctic using a common strategy for sampling and genetic analyses. We aimed to identify and explain potential general patterns of genetic discontinuity/connectivity and diversity, and to compare our findings with previously published hypotheses.We collected and analyzed 7707 samples of 17 widespread arctic-alpine plant species for amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). Genetic structure, diversity and distinctiveness were analyzed for each species, and extrapolated to cover the geographic range of each species. The resulting maps were overlaid to produce metamaps.The Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, the Greenlandic ice cap, the Urals, and lowland areas between southern mountain ranges and the Arctic were the strongest barriers against gene flow. Diversity was highest in Beringia and gradually decreased into formerly glaciated areas. The highest degrees of distinctiveness were observed in Siberia.We conclude that large-scale general patterns exist in the Arctic, shaped by the Pleistocene glaciations combined with long-standing physical barriers against gene flow. Beringia served as both refugium and source for interglacial (re)colonization, whereas areas further west in Siberia served as refugia, but less as sources for (re)colonization.

Climate change is taking place more rapidly and severely in the Arctic than anywhere on the globe, exposing Arctic vertebrates to a host of impacts. Changes in the cryosphere dominate the physical changes that already affect these animals, but increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification will also affect Arctic ecosystems in the future. Adaptation via natural selection is problematic in such a rapidly changing environment. Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity is therefore likely to dominate Arctic vertebrate responses in the short term, and many such adjustments have already been documented. Changes in phenology and range will occur for most species but will only partly mitigate climate change impacts, which are particularly difficult to forecast due to the many interactions within and between trophic levels. Even though Arctic species richness is increasing via immigration from the South, many Arctic vertebrates are expected to become increasingly threatened during this century.

I. 2006. Functional and numerical responses of four lemming predators in high arctic Greenland. Á/ Oikos 113: 193 Á/216.The high-arctic tundra ecosystem has the world's simplest vertebrate predator Á/prey community, with only four predators preying upon one rodent species, the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus ). We document the functional and numerical responses of all the four predators in NE Greenland. Using these data, we assess the impact of predation on the dynamics of the collared lemming with a 4 yr cycle and /100-fold difference between maximum and minimum densities. All predator species feed mostly (/90%) on lemmings when lemming density is /1 ha (1 , but the shapes of the predators' responses vary greatly. The snowy owl (Nyctea scandiaca ) is present and breeds only when lemming densities at snowmelt are /2 ha (1 , giving rise to a step-like numerical response. The long-tailed skua (Stercorarius longicaudus ) has a type III functional response and shifts from alternate food (mainly berries and insects) to lemmings with increasing lemming density. The skua surpasses all the other predators in summer by its total response. The type III functional response of the Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus ) starts to increase at much lower lemming densities than the responses of the avian predators, but it has only a weak numerical response. Finally, the stoat (Mustela erminea ) is the most specialized predator and the only one with a clearly delayed numerical response. According to their specific functional and numerical responses, each predator plays a key role at some point of the lemming cycle, but only the stoat has the potential to drive the lemming cycle. Stoat predation is greatly reduced in the winter preceding the lemming peak, and it reaches a maximum in the winter preceding the lowest lemming summer density. Stoat predation appears to maintain low lemming densities for at least two successive years. Our study provides empirical support for the specialist predator hypothesis about small mammal population cycles.

SummaryClimate change may influence the phenology of organisms unequally across trophic levels and thus lead to phenological mismatches between predators and prey. In cases where prey availability peaks before reproducing predators reach maximal prey demand, any negative fitness consequences would selectively favor resynchronization by earlier starts of the reproductive activities of the predators. At a study site in northeast Greenland, over a period of 17 years, the median emergence of the invertebrate prey of Sanderling Calidris alba advanced with 1.27 days per year. Yet, over the same period Sanderling did not advance hatching date. Thus, Sanderlings increasingly hatched after their prey was maximally abundant. Surprisingly, the phenological mismatches did not affect chick growth, but the interaction of the annual width and height of the peak in food abundance did. Chicks grew especially better in years when the food peak was broad. Sanderling clutches were most likely to be depredated early in the season, which should delay reproduction. We propose that high early clutch predation may favor a later reproductive timing. Additionally, our data suggest that in most years food was still abundant after the median date of emergence, which may explain why Sanderlings did not advance breeding along with the advances in arthropod phenology.

How food webs are structured has major implications for their stability and dynamics. While poorly studied to date, arctic food webs are commonly assumed to be simple in structure, with few links per species. If this is the case, then different parts of the web may be weakly connected to each other, with populations and species united by only a low number of links. We provide the first highly resolved description of trophic link structure for a large part of a high-arctic food web. For this purpose, we apply a combination of recent techniques to describing the links between three predator guilds (insectivorous birds, spiders, and lepidopteran parasitoids) and their two dominant prey orders (Diptera and Lepidoptera). The resultant web shows a dense link structure and no compartmentalization or modularity across the three predator guilds. Thus, both individual predators and predator guilds tap heavily into the prey community of each other, offering versatile scope for indirect interactions across different parts of the web. The current description of a first but single arctic web may serve as a benchmark toward which to gauge future webs resolved by similar techniques. Targeting an unusual breadth of predator guilds, and relying on techniques with a high resolution, it suggests that species in this web are closely connected. Thus, our findings call for similar explorations of link structure across multiple guilds in both arctic and other webs. From an applied perspective, our description of an arctic web suggests new avenues for understanding how arctic food webs are built and function and of how they respond to current climate change. It suggests that to comprehend the community-level consequences of rapid arctic warming, we should turn from analyses of populations, population pairs, and isolated predator–prey interactions to considering the full set of interacting species.

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