At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.

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Summary 1.Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species, including some important forest pests. However, whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects, and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks, is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century, we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth, Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth), in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance, and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that, during the past 15-20 years, the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks . Epirrita autumnata , on the other hand, has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest, most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks, and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem.

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. Ecological Society of America is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Ecology.Abstract. Current methods for evaluating habitat selection from animal space-use observations ignore possible interactions between time allocation patterns relative to different resources, their relative abundance, and their spatial arrangements. Habitat selection may occur in situations in which animals experience a trade-off, e.g., between time used foraging in areas with abundant forage but poor protective cover, and time used for resting in areas with good protective cover but low forage abundance. We show how functional responses in habitat use (i.e., change in preference with availability of one of two main habitat types) may be tested. Given radio-telemetry data for a sample of individuals, binomial logit models can be used to regress proportionate use of a habitat type P(u) against the proportion of that habitat available, P(a). Given an appropriate fit to the data by a linear predictor on a logit scale, functional response will be indicated by a estimated slope parameter ? 1, while a slope = 0 will indicate a consistent use as availability changes. Habitat preference is inferred from the logit regression parameters when the fitted value of the proportion of use at a specified proportion of availability, is significantly greater than the proportional availability.