Summary 1.Range expansions mediated by recent climate warming have been documented for many insect species, including some important forest pests. However, whether climate change also influences the eruptive dynamics of forest pest insects, and hence the ecological and economical consequences of outbreaks, is largely unresolved. 2. Using historical outbreak records covering more than a century, we document recent outbreak range expansions of two species of cyclic geometrid moth, Operophtera brumata Bkh. (winter moth) and Epirrita autumnata L. (autumnal moth), in subarctic birch forest of northern Fennoscandia. The two species differ with respect to cold tolerance, and show strikingly different patterns in their recent outbreak range expansion. 3. We show that, during the past 15-20 years, the less cold-tolerant species O. brumata has experienced a pronounced north-eastern expansion into areas previously dominated by E. autumnata outbreaks . Epirrita autumnata , on the other hand, has expanded the region in which it exhibits regular outbreaks into the coldest, most continental areas. Our findings support the suggestion that recent climate warming in the region is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed patterns. 4. The presence of O. brumata outbreaks in regions previously affected solely by E. autumnata outbreaks is likely to increase the effective duration of local outbreaks, and hence have profound implications for the subarctic birch forest ecosystem.

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Species range displacements owing to shifts in temporal associations between trophic levels are expected consequences of climate warming. Climate-induced range expansions have been shown for two irruptive forest defoliators, the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata, causing more extensive forest damage in sub-Arctic Fennoscandia. Here, we document a rapid northwards expansion of a novel irruptive geometrid, Agriopis aurantiaria, into the same region, with the aim of providing insights into mechanisms underlying the recent geometrid range expansions and subsequent forest damage. Based on regional scale data on occurrences and a quantitative monitoring of population densities along the invasion front, we show that, since the first records of larval specimens in the region in 1997-1998, the species has spread northwards to approximately 701N, and caused severe defoliation locally during [2004][2005][2006]. Through targeted studies of larval phenology of A. aurantiaria and O. brumata, as well as spring phenology of birch, along meso-scale climatic gradients, we show that A. aurantiaria displays a similar dynamics and development as O. brumata, albeit with a consistent phenological lag of 0.75-1 instar. Experiments of the temperature requirements for egg hatching and for budburst in birch showed that this phenological lag is caused by delayed egg hatching in A. aurantiaria relative to O. brumata. A. aurantiaria had a higher development threshold (LDT A.a. 5 4.71 1C, LDT O.b. 5 1.41 1C), and hatched later and in less synchrony with budburst than O. brumata at the lower end of the studied temperature range. We can conclude that recent warmer springs have provided phenological match between A. aurantiaria and sub-Arctic birch which may intensify the cumulative impact of geometrid outbreaks on this forest ecosystem. Higher spring temperatures will increase spring phenological synchrony between A. aurantiaria and its host, which suggests that a further expansion of the outbreak range of A. aurantiaria can be expected.

Brown and polar bears have become prominent examples in phylogeography, but previous phylogeographic studies relied largely on maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) or were geographically restricted. The male-specific Y chromosome, a natural counterpart to mtDNA, has remained underexplored. Although this paternally inherited chromosome is indispensable for comprehensive analyses of phylogeographic patterns, technical difficulties and low variability have hampered its application in most mammals. We developed 13 novel Y-chromosomal sequence and microsatellite markers from the polar bear genome and screened these in a broad geographic sample of 130 brown and polar bears. We also analyzed a 390-kb-long Y-chromosomal scaffold using sequencing data from published male ursine genomes. Y chromosome evidence support the emerging understanding that brown and polar bears started to diverge no later than the Middle Pleistocene. Contrary to mtDNA patterns, we found 1) brown and polar bears to be reciprocally monophyletic sister (or rather brother) lineages, without signals of introgression, 2) male-biased gene flow across continents and on phylogeographic time scales, and 3) male dispersal that links the Alaskan ABC islands population to mainland brown bears. Due to female philopatry, mtDNA provides a highly structured estimate of population differentiation, while male-biased gene flow is a homogenizing force for nuclear genetic variation. Our findings highlight the importance of analyzing both maternally and paternally inherited loci for a comprehensive view of phylogeographic history, and that mtDNA-based phylogeographic studies of many mammals should be reevaluated. Recent advances in sequencing technology render the analysis of Y-chromosomal variation feasible, even in nonmodel organisms.

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We explored Hamilton and Brown's autumn signalling hypothesis in mountain birch (Betula pubescens). As predicted by the hypothesis, early autumn colour change (i.e. high degree of autumn colouration in September) was negatively correlated with insect damage the following season. Furthermore, as expected, indices of physiological stress (i.e. leaf fluctuating asymmetry) and reproductive investment (i.e. catkin production) were positively correlated with insect damage the following season. Indirectly, we also found support for the idea that the proposed handicap signal (i.e. early autumn senescence) might be associated with an honesty ensuring cost in terms of lost primary production. Further work is, however, required to determine whether the link between autumn colours and insect damage observed in this study is causal.

Climatic change is expected to affect the extent and severity of geometrid moth outbreaks, a major disturbance factor in sub-arctic birch forests. Previous studies have reported that the two geometrid species involved, autumnal moth and winter moth, differ in their temperature requirements and, consequently, in their altitudinal and latitudinal distribution patterns. In this study, we document the altitudinal distribution of winter moth outbreaks in a large coastal area in northern Norway. We show that, in the present winter moth outbreak, defoliated birch stands were seen as distinct zones with a rather constant width in the uppermost part of the forest and where the upper limit coincided with the forest line. The outbreak zone closely followed the spatially variable forest line as an undulating belt, although some of the variation in outbreak zone width was also related to variation in topographical variables, such as distance from the coast, forest line altitude, and slope of the terrain. A distinct outbreak zone at the altitudinal forest line is the typical picture that has been depicted in more qualitative historical records on previous outbreaks of autumnal moth rather than winter moth. We suggest that the recent documented climate warming in this region may have induced a shift in distribution of the winter moth both relative to topography and geography. Further investigation is, however, required to substantiate these suspicions.