PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology for a priori classification of natural disasters that occur in Sri Lanka, through the development of a set of weighted parameters based on the product of the disaster impact and the affected area, in order to prepare mitigation plans.Design/methodology/approachExperts' opinions were used for developing the parameters. Through a facilitated workshop, the weights of the disasters were obtained from experts involved in disaster mitigation at the local, regional and national levels in Sri Lanka. A correlation analysis was used to determine the most appropriate independent measures of disaster impact and affected area, the product of which was used to rank the identified disasters for further action.FindingsFor the pre‐selection of major disasters, the study showcases four weighted parameters, one of which is identified as the best. In total, five disasters have been singled out for further consideration in Sri Lanka. The product of the affected area factor, based on administrative area classification, and the impact factor, out of the two considered, that places a higher weight on minor disasters, is shown to be the best criterion.Research limitations/implicationsThe geographical distribution of the participants (experts) does influence the results, and those available for the workshop were not fully representative of all Sri Lanka's provinces.Originality/valueThe paper emphasizes the importance of the consideration of the area impacted rather than the classification, which is based solely on the severity of the impact. The categorization of disasters based on experts' opinions and the related analysis revealed a priority order for planning for certain identified disasters.
Rapid exit taxiways enhance runway operational capacities by means of reducing the runway occupancy times of aircraft. The selection of rapid exit taxiway locations is important to achieve the optimum runway capacity. This paper presents a methodology for locating rapid exits based on excursion risk. Considering the level of severity and frequency of historical runway-related accidents and emerging use of rapid exit taxiways in the future, this study explores the associated veer-off risk at rapid exits. The proposed methodology estimates veer-off risk using three successive steps such as event probability, location probability, and severity estimation. An existing logistic regression model developed for landing overrun probability estimation is adapted for the exit taxiway facility to estimate event probability. Aircraft touchdown speed, deceleration, and runway criticality factor are the important operational parameters of this model adaptation. The aircraft turn path radius and kinetic energy at the time of veer-off are used to estimate the respective location probabilities and accident severities. As the sample analysis proves, the associated veer-off risk increases when the exits are closer to the runway threshold. The paper recommends wider taxiways and larger taxiway radii to compensate for increasing veer risks. The methodology helps for planning risk-based rapid exit taxiways for varying design, operational, and weather conditions.
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