Abstract. In risk analysis there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modelled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often only available for aggregated units, e.g. communities. Dasymetric mapping techniques that use ancillary information to disaggregate data within a spatial unit help to bridge this gap. This paper presents dasymetric maps showing the population density and a unit value of residential assets for whole Germany. A dasymetric mapping approach, which uses land cover data (CORINE Land Cover) as ancillary variable, was adapted and applied to regionalize aggregated census data that are provided for all communities in Germany. The results were validated by two approaches. First, it was ascertained whether population data disaggregated at the community level can be used to estimate population in postcodes. Secondly, disaggregated population and asset data were used for a loss evaluation of two flood events that occurred in 1999 and 2002, respectively. It must be concluded that the algorithm tends to underestimate the population in urban areas and to overestimate population in other land cover classes. Nevertheless, flood loss evaluations demonstrate that the approach is capable of providing realistic estimates of the number of exposed people and assets. Thus, the maps are sufficient for applications in large-scale risk assessments such as the estimation of population and assets exposed to natural and man-made hazards.

Abstract. One important prerequisite for a comparable quantitative risk assessment for different types of hazards (e.g., earthquakes, windstorms and floods) is the use of a common database about and financial appraisal of the assets at risk. For damage assessments it is necessary to represent the values at risk on a regional disaggregated scale and to intersect them with hazard scenarios. This paper presents a methodology and results of a financial appraisal of residential buildings for all communities in Germany. The calculated values are defined as replacement values for the reference year 2000. The resulting average replacement costs for residential buildings per inhabitant amount to EUR 46 600, with considerable differences between communities. The inventory can be used for the calculations of direct losses from various natural disasters within the project "Risk Map Germany''.

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For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sectorspecific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost-benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.

This paper presents a mathematical analysis of rotor shaft displacements in asynchronous machines caused by different types of rotor eccentricity. Based on a simplified rotor model, the theoretical coherence between electromagnetic, rotor dynamic, and the specific characteristics of sleeve bearings is shown. The orbits of the rotor mass and the shaft journal are mathematically described for each kind of eccentricity and the shaft displacement with respect to two virtual fixed sensors is derived. Based on this theoretical description and on a numerical example, the paper shows that focusing in a theoretical rotor dynamic analysis only on the calculated amplitudes in direction of two fixed sensor positions, may lead to wrong conclusions concerning the evaluation of resonances. The aim of this paper is, based on a simplified rotor model, to show the mathematical coherence concerning typical rotor eccentricities in asynchronous machines and to demonstrate the necessity to focus not only on the amplitudes relative to two fixed sensor positions, but to also consider the semi-major axis of the calculated orbit and its angular position. The aim of the paper is not to replace a detailed finite element rotor dynamic analysis by a simplified analytical rotor model for predicting the real shaft vibrations. The intension is to prepare the basis for adopting the conclusions, derived from a simplified analytical model, into a more detailed rotor dynamic model -e.g. a finite element rotor dynamic model -and therefore to derive a more precise theoretical analysis of the real shaft displacements.

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW.Download this ZEW Discussion Paper from our ftp server:http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp11060.pdf Non-Technical SummaryIt is a common belief that more information about climate change will lead to a better understanding of the phenomenon and to an increase of prevention measures, such as insurance for natural hazards.To test this hypothesis, two independent surveys in Germany were conducted. The survey by the research team of KIT was based on an internet questionnaire and a sample of 510 respondents from all regions and socio-economic groups in Germany. The other survey (by researchers of ZEW) was conducted with 157 respondents which were personally present at the premises of the research institute in Mannheim.The main objective of the analyses was to check the correlations and interactions between knowledge about climate change, scientific information about the phenomenon and the risk perception of climate-induced hazards. Furthermore the links between risk perception and prevention measures were analysed.We found that respondents who revealed a better actual knowledge in questions about climate change perceived climate change impacts as less hazardous than those with weaker knowledge. The impact of actual knowledge is opposed to the effect of the self-declared knowledge of the respondents. Respondents who declared their own level of information about climate change as being rather high showed a higher degree of risk perception of climate change than those who ascribed themselves a lower level of information.Overall, in both surveys independently from each other we identified certain factors determining risk perception. These are: gender (female respondents exhibited higher risk perception), experience of damages through extreme weather events (experience implies higher risk perception), and actual knowledge about climate change (better knowledge implies lower risk perception). Surprisingly, the provision of scientific information about expected climate change impacts showed no significant effect on the risk perception.Furthermore we found a positive effect of risk perception of climate change on the willingness to insure and a significant influence of experience with damages through extreme weather events on insurance coverage.Since information about the consequences of climate change does not lead to increased risk perception, we doubt the efficiency of large-scale public information campaigns. Given the broad coverage of the topic in mass media with partly...

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This paper shows a mathematical model for lateral rotor dynamic analysis of soft mounted asynchronous machines with sleeve bearings, due to harmonic and transient excitation. The simplified analytical model combines the electromagnetic, the rotor dynamic, and the specific characteristic of sleeve bearings, considering foundation stiffness and damping. Based on the shown mathematical description, it is possible to calculate the complex eigenvalues and eigenvectors, which describe the natural vibrations, the limit of stability, the relative shaft displacements, the bearing house vibrations and the dynamic foundation forces, due to rotor excitations and air gap torque excitations. Based on the simplified plane analytical model a three‐dimensional finite element model is also derived. The aim of this paper is not to replace a finite element calculation, but to show the mathematical coherences between rotor dynamic, electromagnetic and sleeve bearing characteristic for soft mounted asynchronous machines, considering foundation stiffness and damping, based on a simplified mathematical model.