Abstract.This article examines retrospective publicsupplied precursor reports statistically, and confirms published hypotheses that some alleged precursors within 100 km and within a day prior to the large 1995 Kobe and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, may be valid. The confirmations are mostly at the p<0.001 level of significance. Most significant were alleged meteorological and geophysical precursors, and less often, animal reports. The chi-squared test used, for the first time eliminates the distorting effects of psychological factors on the reports. However it also shows that correct reports are diluted with about the same number which are merely wishful thinking, and obtaining more reliable data would be logistically difficult. Some support is found for another published hypothesis in which other precursors occurred within the ten days prior to the earthquake.
Abstract. Previous published work after the Kobe andİzmit earthquakes (1995 and 1999, respectively) demonstrated some reported meteorological and animal behaviour precursors were valid. Predictions were freshly tested for the Christchurch earthquake (M = 7.1, 4 September 2010). An internet survey with nearly 400 valid replies showed relative numbers of reports in precursor categories the day before the quake, were statistically significantly different from those in the preceding three days (excess meteorological events and animal behaviour). The day before the quake, there was also altered relative precursor class occurrence within 56 km compared with further away. Both these confirmed the earlier published work. Owners were woken up by unique pet behaviour 12 times as often in the hour before the quake compared with other hours immediately before (statistically highly significant). Lost and Found pet reports were double normal the week before, and 4.5 times normal both the day before the quake, and 9 days before. (Results were again statistically significant). Unique animal behaviour before the quake was often repeated before the numerous aftershocks. These pet owners claimed an approximate 80 % prediction reliability. However, a preliminary telephone survey suggested that animals showing any precursor response are a minority. Some precursors seem real, but usefulness seemed mostly restricted to 7 cases where owners were in, or near, a place of safety through disruptive pet behaviour, and one in which owners were diverted by a pet from being struck by falling fixtures. For a later 22 February 2011 M = 6.3 quake no reports of escape through warning by pets were recorded, which raises serious questions whether such prediction is practically useful, because lives claimed saved are extremely low compared with fatalities. It is shown the lost-pet statistics dates, correspond to ionospheric anomalies recorded using the GPS satellite system and geomagnetic disturbance data, and claimed as precursory. The latter more objective measurements may be the way of the future, but improved statistical treatment should include observations over longer periods of time without earthquakes.
Earthquake light (EQL) mainly blue-white flashes from the ground, was observed coseismically during a New Zealand M7.1 earthquake, (4.47 am 4-Sep-2010 local time). A local production mechanism is most probable. The blue-white flash observations support the Freund et al. mechanism, i.e. shockwave disturbance creating electronic "holes" from ruptured peroxy bonds in quartz, and subsequent surface positive charge from the ground, followed by light emission during neutralization. Examination of video records shows the flash median length is about half a second and needs to be differentiated from the light during electricity supply short circuits. Observed ground-level white colors appear to result from very intense non-specific air ionization. Blue colors seem to be nitrogen emission with a short lifetime, succeeded by green oxygen emissions with longer lifetime followed by much lower intensity red. These were created by transient low-to-moderate voltages and probably include significant UV production. The maximum likely radiation dose is small, restricted to the skin, and equivalent at most to a few months natural background radiation. Calculations confirm the release of 222 Rn is not the major mechanism for creating earthquake light, and would contribute minimal radiation dose. Other unique observations are: streamers of light changing from blue to green as they passed from west to east, vertical sheets of blue-green light from cracks in an asphalt road surface, created by local shockwaves and shearing forces, daylight observation by fishermen of rapid linear undersea travel of blue light seconds before a 2011 M6.0 aftershock, and a mid-day green-blue glow over nearby hills containing a fault zone, shortly before the further destructive M6.3 earthquake, (12.51 pm 22-Feb-2011).Las luces de terremoto o EQL (del inglés "Earth Quake Light") son principalmente azul blancas y fueron cosísmicamente observadas durante un terremoto de magnitud 7.1 en Nueva Zelanda (4:47 a.m., 4 de septiembre de 2010, hora local). Es muy probable que el fenómeno haya sido producto de un mecanismo local. Las observaciones del destello azul blanco coinciden con el mecanismo de Freund y otros, esto es, la alteración de un movimiento sísmico que crea "agujeros" electrónicos a partir de lazos de ácido peroxi rotos en cuarzos, con carga positiva superficial consecuente del suelo, y seguida por la emisión de luz durante la neutralización. La revisión de grabaciones de video muestra que la duración del destello es de cerca de medio segundo y debe ser diferenciado de la luz generada por los cortos circuitos del fluido eléctrico. Los colores blancos observados a nivel del terreno parecen resultar de una intensa ionización aérea no específica. Los colores azules serían emisiones de nitrógeno con un corto período de duración, sucedidas por emisiones de oxígeno verde de mayor duración y seguidas por un rojo mucho menos intenso. Estos colores fueron creados por voltajes transitorios de bajo a moderados y probablemente incluyen una producción significativ...
Lithium oxalate (Li-oxalate: Li2C2O4) and magnesium oxalate (Mg-oxalate: MgC2O4·2H2O) were investigated by electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy as new ESR dosimeter materials. The ESR spectra of Li- and Mg-oxalates irradiated by γ-rays have a singlet with a spectroscopic splitting factor (g-factor) of g=2.0043±0.0004 and are ascribed to a self-trapped hole, the oxalate radical C2O4 -. A broad signal formed by high dose irradiation is considered to be due to the zero field fine structure splitting, D S 2 (D/gβ\cong0.65 mT) for the triplet state (S=1) of a dimer of C2O4 - or a pair of electron and hole centers. The response to the γ-ray dose and thermal stability as well as the effect of illumination have been studied with respect to using these materials as ESR dosimeter elements. The radical formation efficiencies (G-value) for Li- and Mg-oxalates were 0.4±0.1 and 0.21±0.06 and the activation energies (E) from the Arrhenius plot were 1.16±0.24 eV and 1.28±0.26 eV, respectively. These lead to the respective lifetimes of 2.6±0.9 and 3.2±1.1 years at 25°C, which are sufficient for practical dosimetry.
Electron spin resonance (ESR) and 230Th/234U ages of speleothem samples collected from karstic caves located around 3000 m elevation in the Aladağlar Mountain Range (AMR), south-central Turkey, were determined in order to provide new insight and information regarding late Pleistocene climate. ESR ages were validated with the 230Th/234U ages of test samples. The ESR ages of 21 different layers of six speleothem samples were found to range mostly between about 59 and 4 ka, which cover the Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) MIS 3 to MIS 1. Among all, only six layers appear to have deposited during MIS 8 and 5. Most of the samples dated were deposited during the late glacial stage (MIS 2). It appears that a cooler climate with a perennial and steady recharge was more conducive to speleothem development rather than a warmer climate with seasonal recharge in the AMR during the late Quaternary. This argument supports previous findings that suggest a two -fold increase in last glacial maximum mean precipitation in Turkey with respect to the present value.
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