Macroscopic anomalies before the September 2010 <i>M</i> = 7.1 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand

Abstract

Abstract. Previous published work after the Kobe andİzmit earthquakes (1995 and 1999, respectively) demonstrated some reported meteorological and animal behaviour precursors were valid. Predictions were freshly tested for the Christchurch earthquake (M = 7.1, 4 September 2010). An internet survey with nearly 400 valid replies showed relative numbers of reports in precursor categories the day before the quake, were statistically significantly different from those in the preceding three days (excess meteorological events and animal behaviour). The day before the quake, there was also altered relative precursor class occurrence within 56 km compared with further away. Both these confirmed the earlier published work. Owners were woken up by unique pet behaviour 12 times as often in the hour before the quake compared with other hours immediately before (statistically highly significant). Lost and Found pet reports were double normal the week before, and 4.5 times normal both the day before the quake, and 9 days before. (Results were again statistically significant). Unique animal behaviour before the quake was often repeated before the numerous aftershocks. These pet owners claimed an approximate 80 % prediction reliability. However, a preliminary telephone survey suggested that animals showing any precursor response are a minority. Some precursors seem real, but usefulness seemed mostly restricted to 7 cases where owners were in, or near, a place of safety through disruptive pet behaviour, and one in which owners were diverted by a pet from being struck by falling fixtures. For a later 22 February 2011 M = 6.3 quake no reports of escape through warning by pets were recorded, which raises serious questions whether such prediction is practically useful, because lives claimed saved are extremely low compared with fatalities. It is shown the lost-pet statistics dates, correspond to ionospheric anomalies recorded using the GPS satellite system and geomagnetic disturbance data, and claimed as precursory. The latter more objective measurements may be the way of the future, but improved statistical treatment should include observations over longer periods of time without earthquakes.

Biological Anomalies around the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake

“…Other than the relevant number of sightings, their observation times (hours–6gg before the shocks) were earlier compared to those for cats, dogs, horses, birds and hens, which occurred up to hours before. Earthworm observations had been reported for past earthquakes [ 15 , 47 , 57 ] with similar anticipation times to those observed for L’Aquila. A possible influence of electric or electromagnetic ultra-low-frequency waves on these animals has been experimentally shown [ 47 ].…”

“…A first ordering of data was the major scope of the present work, taking into account not very precise times, spaces and kinds of biological life. Thus, the analysis was purposely chosen to be not as rigorous as in a recently reported work [ 15 ]. Future works will be more rigorous regarding analysis as in the case of a previous paper [ 16 ], following [ 14 ].…”

Unusual Animal Behavior Preceding the 2011 Earthquake off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku, Japan: A Way to Predict the Approach of Large Earthquakes

“…The ratio of total UABs increased in both animals as the time of the EQ occurrence neared. Many UABs prior to the Christchurch EQ in New Zealand (4 September 2010, Mw = 7.1) occurred within one hour of the EQ [ 42 ]. Although the exact time of the UABs were not asked for in this study, the variation in the UABs occurrence with time seemed similar to that of the Christchurch EQ.…”

Origin of Earthquake Light Associated with Earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, 2010-2011

“…Results were mostly collected on a website specializing in surveys called SurveyMonkey. For other details including data on animal response, see the parallel paper (Whitehead and Ulusoy, 2013). For some of the observations, obvious questions arise, but most participants did not supply email addresses for follow-up questions.…”

“…During the week before 4-Sep, static electricity was frequently reported, with local TV interference and other electronic glitches (Whitehead and Ulusoy, 2013). Before and after the 22-Feb earthquake, one respondent reported 5 minutes of local radio/TV static, though the broadcast signal was unchanged and continuous (Personal communication NZTV1).…”