Abstract.This article examines retrospective publicsupplied precursor reports statistically, and confirms published hypotheses that some alleged precursors within 100 km and within a day prior to the large 1995 Kobe and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, may be valid. The confirmations are mostly at the p<0.001 level of significance. Most significant were alleged meteorological and geophysical precursors, and less often, animal reports. The chi-squared test used, for the first time eliminates the distorting effects of psychological factors on the reports. However it also shows that correct reports are diluted with about the same number which are merely wishful thinking, and obtaining more reliable data would be logistically difficult. Some support is found for another published hypothesis in which other precursors occurred within the ten days prior to the earthquake.
Abstract. Previous published work after the Kobe andİzmit earthquakes (1995 and 1999, respectively) demonstrated some reported meteorological and animal behaviour precursors were valid. Predictions were freshly tested for the Christchurch earthquake (M = 7.1, 4 September 2010). An internet survey with nearly 400 valid replies showed relative numbers of reports in precursor categories the day before the quake, were statistically significantly different from those in the preceding three days (excess meteorological events and animal behaviour). The day before the quake, there was also altered relative precursor class occurrence within 56 km compared with further away. Both these confirmed the earlier published work. Owners were woken up by unique pet behaviour 12 times as often in the hour before the quake compared with other hours immediately before (statistically highly significant). Lost and Found pet reports were double normal the week before, and 4.5 times normal both the day before the quake, and 9 days before. (Results were again statistically significant). Unique animal behaviour before the quake was often repeated before the numerous aftershocks. These pet owners claimed an approximate 80 % prediction reliability. However, a preliminary telephone survey suggested that animals showing any precursor response are a minority. Some precursors seem real, but usefulness seemed mostly restricted to 7 cases where owners were in, or near, a place of safety through disruptive pet behaviour, and one in which owners were diverted by a pet from being struck by falling fixtures. For a later 22 February 2011 M = 6.3 quake no reports of escape through warning by pets were recorded, which raises serious questions whether such prediction is practically useful, because lives claimed saved are extremely low compared with fatalities. It is shown the lost-pet statistics dates, correspond to ionospheric anomalies recorded using the GPS satellite system and geomagnetic disturbance data, and claimed as precursory. The latter more objective measurements may be the way of the future, but improved statistical treatment should include observations over longer periods of time without earthquakes.
Lithium oxalate (Li-oxalate: Li2C2O4) and magnesium oxalate (Mg-oxalate: MgC2O4·2H2O) were investigated by electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy as new ESR dosimeter materials. The ESR spectra of Li- and Mg-oxalates irradiated by γ-rays have a singlet with a spectroscopic splitting factor (g-factor) of g=2.0043±0.0004 and are ascribed to a self-trapped hole, the oxalate radical C2O4 -. A broad signal formed by high dose irradiation is considered to be due to the zero field fine structure splitting, D S 2 (D/gβ\cong0.65 mT) for the triplet state (S=1) of a dimer of C2O4 - or a pair of electron and hole centers. The response to the γ-ray dose and thermal stability as well as the effect of illumination have been studied with respect to using these materials as ESR dosimeter elements. The radical formation efficiencies (G-value) for Li- and Mg-oxalates were 0.4±0.1 and 0.21±0.06 and the activation energies (E) from the Arrhenius plot were 1.16±0.24 eV and 1.28±0.26 eV, respectively. These lead to the respective lifetimes of 2.6±0.9 and 3.2±1.1 years at 25°C, which are sufficient for practical dosimetry.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.