Eddy‐resolving regional ocean model results in conjunction with synthetic float trajectories and observations provide new insights into the recirculation of the Atlantic Water (AW) in Fram Strait that significantly impacts the redistribution of oceanic heat between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. The simulations confirm the existence of a cyclonic gyre around the Molloy Hole near 80°N, suggesting that most of the AW within the West Spitsbergen Current recirculates there, while colder AW recirculates in a westward mean flow south of 79°N that primarily relates to the eastern rim of the Greenland Sea Gyre. The fraction of waters recirculating in the northern branch roughly doubles during winter, coinciding with a seasonal increase of eddy activity along the Yermak Plateau slope that also facilitates subduction of AW beneath the ice edge in this area.

We present the first results from a densely instrumented mooring array upstream of the Denmark Strait sill, extending from the Iceland shelfbreak to the Greenland shelf. The array was deployed from September 2011 to July 2012, and captured the vast majority of overflow water denser than 27.8 kg m −3 approaching the sill. The mean transport of overflow water over the length of the deployment was 3.54 ± 0.16 Sv. Of this, 0.58 Sv originated from below sill depth, revealing that aspiration takes place in Denmark Strait. We confirm the presence of two main sources of overflow water: one approaching the sill in the East Greenland Current and the other via the North Icelandic Jet. Using an objective technique based on the hydrographic properties of the water, the transports of these two sources are found to be 2.54 ± 0.17 Sv and 1.00 ± 0.17 Sv, respectively. We further partition the East Greenland Current source into that carried by the shelfbreak jet (1.50 ± 0.16 Sv) versus that transported by a separated branch of the current on the Iceland slope (1.04 ± 0.15 Sv). Over the course of the year the total overflow transport * Corresponding author. is more consistent than the transport in either branch; compensation takes place among the pathways that maintains a stable total overflow transport. This is especially true for the two East Greenland Current branches whose transports vary out of phase with each other on weekly and longer time scales. We argue that wind forcing plays a role in this partitioning.

Abstract. Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

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The West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) is a topographically steered boundary current that transports warm Atlantic Water northward in Fram Strait. The 16 yr (1997-2012) current and temperature-salinity measurements from moorings in the WSC at 78850 0 N reveal the dynamics of mesoscale variability in the WSC and the central Fram Strait. A strong seasonality of the fluctuations and the proposed driving mechanisms is described. In winter, water is advected in the WSC that has been subjected to strong atmospheric cooling in the Nordic Seas, and as a result the stratification in the top 250 m is weak. The current is also stronger than in summer and has a greater vertical shear. This results in an e-folding growth period for baroclinic instabilities of about half a day in winter, indicating that the current has the ability to rapidly grow unstable and form eddies. In summer, the WSC is significantly less unstable with an e-folding growth period of 2 days. Observations of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) show a peak in the boundary current in January-February when it is most unstable. Eddies are then likely advected westward, and the EKE peak is observed 1-2 months later in the central Fram Strait. Conversely, the EKE in the WSC as well as in the central Fram Strait is reduced by a factor of more than 3 in late summer. Parameterizations for the expected EKE resulting from baroclinic instability can account for the observed EKE values. Hence, mesoscale instability can generate the observed variability, and high-frequency wind forcing is not required to explain the observed EKE.

[1] The Eastern Weddell Sea is characterized by narrow continental shelves and Warm Deep Water (WDW) is located in close proximity to the ice shelves in this region. The exchange of WDW across the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) determines the rate of basal ice shelf melting. Here, we present a unique data set consisting of 2351 vertical profiles of temperature and salinity collected by southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) and a profile beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf (FIS), obtained via drilling through 395 m of ice. This data set reveals variations in salinity and temperature through winter, and using a conceptual model of the coastal salt budget we quantify the main exchange processes. Our data show that modified WDW, with temperatures below −1.5°C, is advected onto the shelf and into the ice shelf cavities by an eddy overturning of the ASF. The onshore Ekman flux of surface waters during summer is the main source of freshwater that leads to the formation of low salinity shelf waters in the region. The modified WDW that reaches beneath the ice shelves is too cold for basal ice shelf melting to create such low salinity water. A high-resolution model of an idealized ASF-continental shelf-ice shelf system supports the conclusions from the data analysis. The inflow of WDW onto the continental shelf and into the ice shelf cavity occurs within a bottom boundary layer where the eddy advection in the model is particularly strong, in close agreement with the observed vertical profile of temperature beneath the FIS.

International audienceLocally grounded features in ice shelves, called ice rises and rumples, play a key role buttressing discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and regulating its contribution to sea level. Ice rises typically rise several hundreds of meters above the surrounding ice shelf; shelf flow is diverted around them. On the other hand, shelf ice flows across ice rumples, which typically rise only a few tens of meters above the ice shelf. Ice rises contain rich histories of deglaciation and climate that extend back over timescales ranging from a few millennia to beyond the last glacial maximum. Numerical model results have shown that the buttressing effects of ice rises and rumples are significant, but details of processes and how they evolve remain poorly understood. Fundamental information about the conditions and processes that cause transitions between floating ice shelves, ice rises and ice rumples is needed in order to assess their impact on ice-sheet behavior. Targeted high-resolution observational data are needed to evaluate and improve prognostic numerical models and parameterizations of the effects of small-scale pinning points on grounding-zone dynamics