Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Edwards, Tamsin; Nowicki, Sophie; Marzeion, Ben; Hock, Regine; Goelzer, Heiko; Seroussi, Hélène; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Slater, Donald; Turner, Fiona; Smith, Christopher J.; McKenna, Christine M.; Simon, Erika; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Larour, Eric; Lipscomb, William H.; Payne, Antony J.; Shepherd, Andrew; Agosta, Cécile; Alexander, Patrick; Albrecht, Torsten; Anderson, Brian; Asay‐Davis, Xylar; Aschwanden, Andy; Barthel, Alice; Bliss, Andrew; Calov, Reinhard; Chambers, Christopher; Champollion, Nicolas; Choi, Youngmin; Cullather, Richard I.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Dumas, Christophe; Felikson, Denis; Fettweis, Xavier; Fujita, Koji; Galton-Fenzi, B; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huss, Matthias; Huybrechts, Philippe; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Kleiner, Thomas; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; clec’h, Sébastien Le; Lee, Victoria; Leguy, Gunter; Little, Christopher M.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Malles, Jan-Hendrik; Martín, Daniel; Maussion, Fabien; Morlighem, Mathieu; O’Neill, James C.; Nias, Isabel; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen; Quiquet, Aurélien; Radić, Valentina; Reese, Ronja; Rounce, David; Rückamp, Martin; Sakai, Akiko; Shafer, Courtney; Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne; Shannon, Sarah; Smith, Robin; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Tarasov, Lev; Trusel, Luke D.; Breedam, Jonas Van; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Broeke, Michiel van den; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zekollari, Harry; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, Thomas

doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Cited by 221 publications

(189 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…They also project more mass loss than Kraaijenbrink et al (2017), with differences between 17 and 13% for SSP126 and SSP585, respectively. Finally, our results are between 4% less negative and 2% more negative for SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, than the mean result of Edwards et al (2021) using the same climate forcing data (Fig. 11).…”

Section: Comparison With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 41%

“…We compare our HMA-wide results against the ones from the nine global glacier models (Van de Wal and Wild, 2001;Marzeion et al, 2012;Radic and Hock, 2014;Huss and Hock, 2015;Kraaijenbrink et al, 2017;Sakai and Fujita, 2017;Maussion et al, 2019;Shannon et al, 2019;Rounce et al, 2020) that participated in the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (GlacierMIP2, Marzeion et al, 2020). Since models participating in GlacierMIP2 used CMIP5 GCMs to force the glacier evolution models, we additionally compare our results to those of Edwards et al (2021), who used statistical emulation to convert the glacier volume evolution projected by Marzeion et al (2020) We also compare our results specifically to Kraaijenbrink et al (2017), which is the only regional study available so far that explicitly accounted for the effect of debris cover. The study used remote sensing data to determine the spatial distribution of debris, as well as debris surface-temperature to estimate debris thickness and its relation to ice melt.…”

Section: Comparison With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To do so, we model all HMA glaciers between 2000 and 2100. The modelling is based on five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP119, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the results are compared to model runs that do not explicitly account for debris cover (Marzeion et al, 2020;Edwards et al, 2021). We discuss the resulting differences in terms of glacier mass balance, glacier evolution, and ice-flow velocity, which allows us to assess the importance of accounting for debris-cover evolution in regional studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia

Compagno

Huss

Miles

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Currently, about 12–13 % of High Mountain Asia's glacier area is debris-covered, altering its surface mass balance. However, in regional-scale modelling approaches, debris-covered glaciers are typically treated as clean-ice glaciers, leading to a potential bias when modelling their future evolution. Here, we present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution, applicable from single glaciers to the global scale. We implement the module into the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEMflow), a combined mass-balance ice-flow model. The module is initialized with both glacier-specific observations of the debris’ spatial distribution and estimates of debris thickness, accounts for the fact that debris can either enhance or reduce surface melt depending on thickness, and enables representing the spatio-temporal evolution of debris extent and thickness. We calibrate and evaluate the module on a select subset of glaciers, and apply the model using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia until 2100. Compared to 2020, total glacier volume is expected to decrease by between 35 ± 15 % and 80 ±11 %, which is in line with projections in the literature. Depending on the scenario, the mean debris-cover fraction is expected to increase, while mean debris thickness is modelled to show only minor changes, albeit large local thickening is expected. To isolate the influence of explicitly accounting for supraglacial debris-cover, we re-compute glacier evolution without the debris-cover module. We show that glacier geometry, area, volume and flow velocity evolve differently, especially at the level of individual glaciers. This highlights the importance of accounting for debris-cover and its spatio-temporal evolution when projecting future glacier changes.

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Section: Comparison With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 41%

Section: Comparison With Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia

Compagno

Huss

Miles

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…After volcanic eruptions these depositions usually occur over a few years and are rather homogeneous over spatial scales of tens to hundreds of kilometres. The absence of melting on the Antarctic plateau leads to continuous burial and, thus, submergence of these conductivity layers, which are typically spread over less than 1 m (Eisen et al, 2006).…”

Section: Observation Of Isochronesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration

2021

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Abstract. Ice-sheet models are a powerful tool to project the evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and thus their future contribution to global sea-level changes. Testing the ability of ice-sheet models to reproduce the ongoing and past evolution of the ice cover in Greenland and Antarctica is a fundamental part of every modelling effort. However, benchmarking ice-sheet model results against real-world observations is a non-trivial process as observational data come with spatiotemporal gaps in coverage. Here, we present a new approach to assess the accuracy of ice-sheet models which makes use of the internal layering of the Antarctic ice sheet. We calculate isochrone elevations from simulated Antarctic geometries and velocities via passive Lagrangian tracers, highlighting that a good fit of the model to two-dimensional datasets such as surface velocity and ice thickness does not guarantee a good match against the 3D architecture of the ice sheet and thus correct evolution over time. We show that palaeoclimate forcing schemes derived from ice-core records and climate models commonly used to drive ice-sheet models work well to constrain the 3D structure of ice flow and age in the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet and especially along ice divides but fail towards the ice-sheet margin. The comparison to isochronal horizons attempted here reveals that simple heuristics of basal drag can lead to an overestimation of the vertical interior ice-sheet flow especially over subglacial basins. Our model observation intercomparison approach opens a new avenue for the improvement and tuning of current ice-sheet models via a more rigid constraint on model parameterisations and climate forcing, which will benefit model-based estimates of future and past ice-sheet changes.

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“…The uncertainty in future contributions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea-level rise is highlighted by two, recent studies. Edwards et al (2021) show a wide range of model responses, including some where increased snowfall could balance out a warming atmosphere and ocean. Whereas, DeConto et al (2021) demonstrate a potential order of magnitude increase in global mean sea-level rise within the next 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Roadmap for Policy-Relevant Sea-Level Rise Research in the United Arab Emirates

et al. 2021

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a long-term policy horizon, the financial capital, and a vision for a sustainable knowledge-based economy. These characteristics uniquely situate it as a potential leader for sea-level rise research. Climate science is already growing, and at the center of the UAE's pivot toward climate research is a burgeoning concern for sea-level rise. Over 85% of the UAE's population and more than 90% of the nation's infrastructure is within a few meters of present-day sea-level. With its low-lying and shallow-sloping geography (about 35 cm per km), this high-value coastline, including the rapidly expanding cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Meanwhile, limited regional research and data scarcity create deep uncertainty for sea-level projections. We set out a potential roadmap for the UAE to capitalize on its strengths to create usable and relevant sea-level projections for the region. With a newly established Climate Change Research Network, the UAE government is beginning to draw together universities and research centers for “furthering effective data collection and management, and advancing policy-relevant research on climate impacts and adaptation1.” By consolidating ideas from the science community within the UAE, we identify promoters and barriers to data gathering, information sharing, science-policy communication, and funding access. Our paper proposes pathways forward for the UAE to integrate sea-level science with coastal development and form best practices that can be scaled across climate science and throughout the region.

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Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Cited by 221 publications

References 69 publications

Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia

Modelling supraglacial debris-cover evolution from the single glacier to the regional scale: an application to High Mountain Asia

Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration

A Roadmap for Policy-Relevant Sea-Level Rise Research in the United Arab Emirates

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