Revealing the impact of future climate change on the characteristics and evolutionary patterns of meteorological and hydrological droughts and exploring the joint distribution characteristics of their drought characteristics are essential for drought early warning in the basin. In this study, we considered the Jinghe River Basin in the Loess Plateau as the research object. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) series were used to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought with monthly runoff generated by the SWAT model. In addition, the evolution laws of the JRB in the future based on Copula functions are discussed. The results showed that: (1) the meteorological drought and hydrological drought of the JRB displayed complex periodic change trends of drought and flood succession, and the evolution laws of meteorological drought and hydrological drought under different spatiotemporal scales and different scenario differ significantly. (2) In terms of the spatial range, the JRB meteorological and hydrological drought duration and severity gradually increased along with the increase in the time scale. (3) Based on the joint distribution model of the Copula function, the future meteorological drought situation in the JRB will be alleviated when compared with the historical period on the seasonal scale, but the hydrological drought situation is more serious. The findings can help policy-makers explore the correlation between meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the background of future climate change, as well as the early warning of hydrological drought.
The underlying surface parameters in the Budyko framework (such as parameter n in the Choudhury–Yang equation) are crucial for studying the relationship between precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff. It is important to accurately quantify the influence of climate and human activities on the evolution of underlying surface characteristic parameters. However, due to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of underlying surface parameters, it is often difficult to accurately quantify these relationships. In this study, taking the Kuye River Basin located in the northern Loess Plateau as the research object, we first used trend analysis and non-linear regression methods to estimate the evolution characteristics of runoff and underlying surface parameter n. We then determined the contribution of runoff changes by using the elasticity coefficient method under the 9-year moving average window. The results showed that: 1) the Kuye River Basin runoff underwent a sudden change in 1997, and the complex human activities are the main reasons for the sharp runoff decrease. 2) In addition to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, temperature changes will alter the basin’s underlying surface parameters, ultimately changing the runoff. Moreover, climate change first inhibited and then promoted the runoff reduction trend. 3) Human activities, represented by changes in vegetation coverage and coal mining, considerably influenced runoff evolution in Kuye River Basin. More importantly, the change of runoff in the Kuye River Basin caused by coal mining is approximately four times that of the normalized vegetation index. This study can improve the applicability of the Budyko framework in the Loess Plateau sub-basin and provide scientific guidance for water resource management.
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