Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Characteristics in the Jinghe River Basin, China

Huang, Tingting; Wu, Zhiyong; Xiao, Peiqing; Sun, Zhaomin; Liu, Yu; Wang, Jingshu; Wang, Zhihui

doi:10.3390/rs15051297

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…In contrast, the GEV distribution can better fit the runoff data. The Gaussian, Student, Clayton, and Clayton's rotation structures, commonly used in hydrology [10], were used as alternative types of pair-copulas. The optimal pair-copula type for the Wuhan-Hukou Basin was determined based on the AIC, BIC, and LL.…”

Section: Selection Of Marginal Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Standard indices in this category include the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) [8] and the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI) [9]. The hydrological drought index is connected to variables such as runoff and groundwater levels [10]. It describes the reduction of water volume in rivers or reservoirs due to insufficient surface or groundwater, and examples of this type of index are the SWSI [11] and SRI [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Copula-Based Joint Drought Index Using Precipitation, NDVI, and Runoff and Its Application in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Wei,

Liu,

Hua

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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Drought monitoring ensures the Yangtze River Basin’s social economy and agricultural production. Developing a comprehensive index with high monitoring precision is essential to enhance the accuracy of drought management strategies. This study proposes the standardized comprehensive drought index (SCDI) using a novel approach that utilizes the joint distribution of C-vine copula to effectively combine three critical drought factors: precipitation, NDVI, and runoff. The study analyzes the reliability and effectiveness of the SCDI in detecting drought events through quantitative indicators and assesses its applicability in the Yangtze River Basin. The findings are as follows: (1) The SCDI is a highly reliable and applicable drought index. Compared to traditional indices like the SPI, VCI, and SRI, it has a consistency rate of over 67% and can detect drought events in more sensitive months by over 51%. It has a low false negative rate of only 2% and a false positive rate of 0%, making it highly accurate. The SCDI is also applicable to all the third-level sub-basins of the Yangtze River Basin, making it a valuable tool for regional drought monitoring. (2) The time lag effect of the NDVI can affect the sensitivity of the SCDI. When the NDVI time series data are shifted forward by one month, the sensitivity of the SCDI in detecting agricultural drought improves from 47.8% to 53%. (3) The SDCI can assist in monitoring drought patterns in the Yangtze River Basin. From 2001 to 2018, the basin saw fluctuations in drought intensity, with the worst in December 2008. The western region had less frequent but more intense and prolonged droughts, while the eastern part had more frequent yet less severe droughts.

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Section: Selection Of Marginal Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Copula-Based Joint Drought Index Using Precipitation, NDVI, and Runoff and Its Application in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Wei,

Liu,

Hua

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…In the relevant drought research, in order to standardize and quantify it, a large number of drought indicators have been proposed by different scholars, such as standardized precipitation index (SPI) [23], Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) [24], reconnaissance drought index (RDI) [25], relative moisture index (MI) [26], etc. Among them, the relative moisture index, which takes into account the two modules of aerodynamic factors and energy balance, has good adaptability in the semi-humid area [27].…”

Section: Relative Moisture Index (Mi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration and Relative Moisture Index in Heilongjiang Investigated through Remote Sensing Tools

et al. 2023

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the significant parameters in agricultural irrigation, especially in Heilongjiang, a big agricultural province in China. In this research, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of evapotranspiration (ET), relative moisture index (MI) and influencing factors of ET0 in Heilongjiang, which was divided into six ecology districts according to landforms, were analyzed with meteorological data observed over 40 years from 1980 and MOD16 products from 2000 to 2017 using Morlet wavelet analysis and partial correlation analysis. The results indicated that (1) the spatial distribution of ET and PET in Heilongjiang in humid, normal and arid years showed a distribution of being higher in the southwest and lower in the northwest, and higher in the south and lower in the north. The PET was higher than ET from 2002 to 2017, and the difference was small, indicating that the overall moisture in Heilongjiang was sufficient in these years. (2) In the last 40 years, the ET0 increased while the annual MI decreased. The annual minimum of MI in the six regions of Heilongjiang was −0.25, showing that all six regions were drought free. (3) The importance of the meteorological factors affecting ET0 was ranked as average relative humidity > average wind speed > sunshine duration. This research provides scientific guidance for the study of using remote sensing to reverse ET.

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“…Te impact of meteorological droughts may become more severe in the future, as the climate changes due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere [26]. Te extended duration of insufcient soil moisture is remarkably associated with hydrological drought, which afects the water shortage for a long period [4,27,28]. Hence, the other types of droughts are connected to the meteorological drought, and therefore, monitoring and evaluating meteorological drought are the primarily steps towards improving the performance of operational drought monitoring systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Characteristics in the Jinghe River Basin, China

Cited by 14 publications

References 53 publications

Copula-Based Joint Drought Index Using Precipitation, NDVI, and Runoff and Its Application in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Copula-Based Joint Drought Index Using Precipitation, NDVI, and Runoff and Its Application in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration and Relative Moisture Index in Heilongjiang Investigated through Remote Sensing Tools

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

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