Attribution analysis of runoff evolution in Kuye River Basin based on the time-varying budyko framework

Abstract

The underlying surface parameters in the Budyko framework (such as parameter n in the Choudhury–Yang equation) are crucial for studying the relationship between precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff. It is important to accurately quantify the influence of climate and human activities on the evolution of underlying surface characteristic parameters. However, due to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of underlying surface parameters, it is often difficult to accurately quantify these relationships. In this study, taking the Kuye River Basin located in the northern Loess Plateau as the research object, we first used trend analysis and non-linear regression methods to estimate the evolution characteristics of runoff and underlying surface parameter n. We then determined the contribution of runoff changes by using the elasticity coefficient method under the 9-year moving average window. The results showed that: 1) the Kuye River Basin runoff underwent a sudden change in 1997, and the complex human activities are the main reasons for the sharp runoff decrease. 2) In addition to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, temperature changes will alter the basin’s underlying surface parameters, ultimately changing the runoff. Moreover, climate change first inhibited and then promoted the runoff reduction trend. 3) Human activities, represented by changes in vegetation coverage and coal mining, considerably influenced runoff evolution in Kuye River Basin. More importantly, the change of runoff in the Kuye River Basin caused by coal mining is approximately four times that of the normalized vegetation index. This study can improve the applicability of the Budyko framework in the Loess Plateau sub-basin and provide scientific guidance for water resource management.

Analysis of Changes in Runoff and Sediment Load and Their Attribution in the Kuye River Basin of the Middle Yellow River Based on the Slope Change Ratio of Cumulative Quantity Method

“…Liu et al [32] used the double cumulative curve method to identify the initial change year for streamflow and sediment transport in the KYH_W as 1979 and segmented the periods post-1980 into four intervals: 1950-1979, 1980-1996, 1997-2011, and 2012-2019, which were analyzed based on coal mining and vegetation cover data. Furthermore, Huang et al [34] utilized Pettitt's test to examine the change in streamflow in the KYH_W and pinpointed 1997 as the change year. Most studies on detecting change years in streamflow in the KYH_W exhibit significant consistency in the range of change points, predominantly falling between 1979 and 1980 and 1996 and 1999, with the stream-sediment relationship showing synchronicity with climate factors.…”

“…Research conducted in the middle reaches of the Yellow River has demonstrated that higher temperatures result in decreased basin runoff [43]. Huang et al [34] also found that temperature changes can alter watershed surface parameters, influencing runoff in addition to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Factors other than the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) contributed 24.96%, 22.36%, and 29.77% to runoff reduction in the KYH_W, WDHT_SW, and XM_SW, respectively, and 48.42%, 50.73%, and 41.43% to sediment yield reduction in the same sub-basins.…”

“…The Kuye River watershed (KYH_W) serves as the primary source of coarse sediment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River [6]. Due to its status as a key sediment production area in the Yellow River, the water-sediment relationship, causes, and management solutions in this basin differ from other basins, consequently attracting much scholarly attention [21,23,25,27,[32][33][34]. In recent years, with the support of various thematic data and analysis methods from climate, geography, environment, and other fields, our understanding and exploration of the long-term regulations governing runoff and sediment in the KYH_W have significantly expanded.…”

“…He et al [33] quantitatively evaluated the contribution of runoff change factors at three different scales in the KYH_W using the elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko framework. Huang et al [34], also employing the elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko framework, utilized a 9-year moving average window to determine the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the KYH_W. However, due to its unique natural and geographical location and arid climate characteristics, as well as the long-term impact of human activities, the water and sediment issues and ecological vulnerability in the KYH_W require continuous monitoring.…”

Research on evolution of Western Han Dynasty water basin based on LUCC and NDVI

“…Affected by climate change and human activities, the spatial and temporal distribution of runoff in many river basins has changed significantly, disturbing the hydrological cycle and affecting the health of river ecosystems. Therefore, studying the main drivers of changes in runoff is key to global water forecasting and the basis for sustaining the sustainable use of freshwater resources [1 ].At this stage, the research and analysis of the causes of runoff changes in the river basin, from single to diverse influencing factors, has become one of the hot spots in the current hydrological research of the river basin.Huang et al [2] pointed out that frequent and complex human activities are the main reasons for the sharp decline of runoff in the loess high-atom basin. Xu et al [3] based on the study of runoff in the Weihe River Basin found that the drastic change of watershed characteristics caused by large-scale human activities is the main reason for the decrease of runoff in the watershed.…”