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A four-dimensional (4D) ensemble-variational data assimilation (DA) system (4DEnsVar) was developed, building upon the infrastructure of the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI)-based hybrid DA system. 4DEnsVar used ensemble perturbations valid at multiple time periods throughout the DA window to estimate 4D error covariances during the variational minimization, avoiding the tangent linear and adjoint of the forecast model. The formulation of its implementation in GSI was described. The performance of the system was investigated by evaluating the global forecasts and hurricane track forecasts produced by the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) during the 5-week summer period assimilating operational conventional and satellite data. The newly developed system was used to address a few questions regarding 4DEnsVar. 4DEnsVar in general improved upon its 3D counterpart, 3DEnsVar. At short lead times, the improvement over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics was similar to that over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. At longer lead times, 4DEnsVar showed more improvement in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The 4DEnsVar showed less impact over the tropics. The track forecasts of 16 tropical cyclones initialized by 4DEnsVar were more accurate than 3DEnsVar after 1-day forecast lead times. The analysis generated by 4DEnsVar was more balanced than 3DEnsVar. Case studies showed that increments from 4DEnsVar using more frequent ensemble perturbations approximated the increments from direct, nonlinear model propagation better than using less frequent ensemble perturbations. Consistently, the performance of 4DEnsVar including both the forecast accuracy and the balances of analyses was in general degraded when less frequent ensemble perturbations were used. The tangent linear normal mode constraint had positive impact for global forecast but negative impact for TC track forecasts.

“Accessibility,” defined as the ease (or difficulty) with which opportunities for activity can be reached from a given location, can be measured with the cumulative amount of opportunities from an origin within a given amount of travel time. These indicators can be used in regional planning and modeling efforts to integrate land use and travel demand, and an attempt should be made to calculate these indicators for the smallest geographic area. The primary objective of this paper is to illustrate the creation of realistic space-sensitive and time-sensitive block-level accessibility indicators to track the availability of opportunities. These indicators support the development of an activity-based travel demand model by Southern California Association of Governments to provide second-by-second and parcel-by-parcel modeling and simulation. The indicators also provided the base information for mapping opportunities of access to 15 types of industries at different times during a day. The indicators and their maps were defined for the entire region of Southern California through largely available data that included the Census Transportation Planning Package, Dun & Brad-street postprocessed data, detailed highway networks and travel times from the four-step regional models, and arrival and departure times of workers by industry.

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In the classic p-median problem, it is assumed that each point of demand will be served by his or her closest located facility. The p-median problem can be thought of as a ‘‘single-level’’ allocation and location problem, as all demand at a specific location is assigned as a whole unit to the closest facility. In some service protocols, demand assignment has been defined as ‘‘multilevel’’ where each point of demand may be served a certain percentage of the time by the closest facility, a certain percentage of the time by the second closest facility, and so on. This article deals with the case in which there is a need for ‘‘explicit’’ closest assignment (ECA) constraints. The authors review past location modeling work that involves single-level ECA constraints as well as specific constraint constructs that have been proposed to ensure single-level closest assignment. They then show how each of the earlier proposed ECA constructs can be generalized for the ‘‘multilevel’’ case. Finally, the authors provide computational experience using these generalized ECA constructs for a novel multilevel facility interdiction problem introduced in this article. Altogether, this article proposes both a new set of constraint structures that can be used in location models involving multilevel assignment as well as a new facility interdiction model that can be used to optimize worst case levels of facility disruption.

A scale-dependent localization (SDL) method was formulated and implemented in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnVar) system for NCEP FV3-based Global Forecast System (GFS). SDL applies different localization to different scales of ensemble covariances, while performing a single-step simultaneous assimilation of all available observations. Two SDL variants with (SDL-Cross) and without (SDL-NoCross) considering cross-wave-band covariances were examined. The performance of two- and three-wave-band SDL experiments (W2 and W3, respectively) was evaluated through 1-month cycled data assimilation experiments. SDL improves global forecasts to 5 days over scale-invariant localization including the operationally tuned level-dependent scale-invariant localization (W1-Ope). The W3 SDL-Cross experiment shows more accurate tropical storm–track forecasts at shorter lead times than W1-Ope. Compared to the W2 SDL experiments, the W3 SDL counterparts applying tighter horizontal localization at medium-scale wave band generally show improved global forecasts below 100 hPa, but degraded global forecasts above 50 hPa. While the outperformance of the W3 SDL-NoCross experiment versus the W2 SDL-NoCross experiment below 100 hPa lasts for 5 days, that of the W3 SDL-Cross experiment versus the W2 SDL-Cross experiment lasts for 3 days. Due to local spatial averaging of ensemble covariances that may alleviate sampling error, the SDL-NoCross experiments show slightly better forecasts than the SDL-Cross experiments at shorter lead times. However, the SDL-Cross experiments outperform the SDL-NoCross experiments at longer lead times, likely from retention of more heterogeneity of ensemble covariances and resultant analyses with improved balance. Relative performance of tropical storm–track forecasts in the W2 and W3 SDL experiments are generally consistent with that of global forecasts.

The vector assignment p-median problem (VAPMP) and the ordered p-median problem (OMP) are important extensions of the classic p-median problem. The VAPMP extends the p-median problem by allowing assignment of a demand to multiple facilities, and a wide variety of multi-assignment and backup location problems are special cases of this problem. The OMP optimizes a weighted sum of service distances according to their relative ranks among all demands. The OMP is well known as it represents a generalization of both the p-median and the p-center problems. In this article, a new model is developed which extends both the VAPMP and OMP problems. In addition, beyond median, center, and vector assignment, this new model can resolve problems where the system objective involves maximizing distance. The new model also gives rise to meaningful special-case problems, such as a “reliable p-center” problem. Different integer linear programming (ILP) formulations of the new problem are presented and tested. It is demonstrated that an efficient formulation for a special case of the VAOMP problem can solve medium sized problems optimally in a reasonable amount of time.