JT03388129Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ECO/WKP(2015)93 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2015)93 2 OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France, or by e-mail to eco.contact@oecd.org.All Economics Department Working Papers are available at www.oecd.org/eco/workingpapers.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD (2015)You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org ECO/WKP(2015) This paper re-estimates the elasticities of government revenue and expenditure items with respect to the output gap for OECD countries. These elasticities are used by the OECD to calculate cyclically adjusted fiscal balances. The study updates the earlier 2005 study using the most recent datasets and tax codes, the coverage being confined in this paper to 35 countries, the 34 OECD member states and Latvia. The same two-step methodology is retained: revenue and expenditure elasticities with respect to the output gap being defined as the product of, first, the elasticities of individual revenue and expenditure items with respect to their bases and, second, the elasticities of these bases with respect to the output gap. A number of refinements and methodological improvements are made relative to the 2005 study. The revisions to individual elasticities relative to the 2005 vintage are significant in a number of cases but do not follow a clear pattern across countries, except for the elasticities of corporate income tax revenue which are revised up in most cases. JEL classification codes: E62, H30, H60.Key words: budget elasticity, automatic stabilisers, fiscal surveillance, cyclically adjusted. ******************** Correction des soldes budgétaires en fonction des variations cycliques : nouvelles estimations d'élastic...
OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.
This paper was originally prepared for the OECD Working Party No. 1 under the authority of the OECD’s Economic Policy Committee. Jens Høj and Giuseppe Nicoletti work for the OECD Economics Department as a senior economist in the Country Studies Branch and as Head of the Structural Policy Analysis Division 1, respectively. Vincenzo Galasso is an Associate Professor of Economics at Università Bocconi in Italy and Thai-Thang Dang is a private sector consultant. The authors wish to thank Jean Philippe Cotis, Jørgen Elmeskov, Michael P. Feiner, Christopher Heady, Nick Johnstone and many other colleagues in the OECD Economics Department as well as representatives from OECD member countries for useful comments on a previous version of the paper.
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