In econometric time series analysis, data which have high volatility would be very risky to be used as a basis for forecasting, including the volatility of food prices in Indonesia. Time series data have a tendency to have a constant confounding error variance over time. Appropriate econometric model to estimate such behavior is called the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. This paper attempts to use ARCH/GARCH models to explain the behavior of food price inflation in Indonesia in time period of 2005.1 to 2010.6. It is explained that by incorporating elements of ARCH/GARCH, better estimates will be achieved.
<p><em>Current credit giving in KOPERIA (Koperasi Warga Komplek Gandaria) is still based on an objective process. Difficulties in determining the feasibility of giving credit are often experienced by cooperative managers, so that problems arise in the cooperative is a default payment of credit installments of customers in KOPERIA. This study aims to form a decision tree classification model to determine the customer's credit worthiness. In this study the application of C4.5 Algorithm, based on the Sets and Attributes used in this study, namely, the amount of income divided into 2 categories> 5 million and 3-5 million, the amount of balance divided into three, namely> 3 million, 1-3 million and <1 Million, The Loan Amount is divided into three, namely 1-4 Months, 5-8 months, and 9-12 Months and Requirements with attributes of Business Capital, buying goods and others. In this study determine the appropriate root nodes, the classification results using C4.5 Algorithm shows that the accuracy of 97.5% is obtained, based on the results obtained shows that the c4.5 algorithm is suitable to be used to determine the feasibility of lending customers to KOPERIA.</em></p><p><strong><em>Keywords</em></strong><em>: Data Mining, C4.5 Algorithm</em><em>, loan feasibility</em></p>
Partial hydrogenation of polyunsaturated fatty acid methyl esters in a trickle-bed reactor was modeled and simulated in this study with the objectives being to investigate the performance of the reactor, to predict the effect of process parameters on the reactor performance, and to observe the radial heat transfer in the reactor. The reactor possessed the aspect ratio of 100 and was packed with spherical catalyst particles. A steady-state heterogeneous model was applied. The gas and liquid phases were modeled in twodimensional axisymmetric model, which consist of mass balance for each phase, energy balance and momentum balance. The momentum balance was based on the Darcy equation for two fluid phases passing through porous media. Mixing in both fluid phases is also described by dispersion coefficients. The three-dimensional solid phase model considered diffusive transport in the catalyst pores and surface reactions. Methyl linoleate was considered as polyunsaturated fatty acid methyl ester representative, and cis-methyl oleate, trans-methyl oleate and methyl stearate were as the hydrogenated fatty acid methyl esters. The simulation results for the inlet temperature of 433 K and the reactor pressure of 611 kPa with the gas flowrate being 43 times higher than the liquid one shows that the process reached 78.22% methyl linoleate conversion. The concentrations of cis-methyl oleate, transmethyl oleate and methyl stearate at the reactor outlet are 16.2 mol/m 3 , 17.4 mol/m 3 dan 16.6 mol/m 3 , respectively. The total methyl oleate produced is about twice that of methyl stearate, and its selectivity is about 53%.
<p>Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga (PLT) Mikrohidro atau sering disebut mikrohidro merupakan salah satu pembangkit listrik skala kecil terbarukan yang menggunakan tenaga air sebagai tenaga penggeraknya seperti, saluran irigasi, sungai atau air terjun dengan cara memanfaatkan ketinggian jatuh (head) dan jumlah debit air. Desa Kebonagung merupakan salah satu desa di Kecamatan Selopampang, Kabupaten Temanggung yang memiliki aliran air cukup deras dan hanya dimanfaatkan untuk kebutuhan irigasi. Berdasarkan analisis geografis dan hidrolisis, aliran sungai di Desa Kebonagung memiliki potensi untuk dimanfaatkan sebagai pembangkit energi terbarukan yaitu mikrohiro. Pemanfaatan aliran air untuk PLT Mikrohidro ini menggunakan turbin tipe cross flow dengan kapasitas desain sebesar 2 kW, ketinggian desain 10 meter dan debit desain sebesar 30 liter/sekon. Pembuatan PLT Mikrohidro ini memiliki tujuan yaitu mendukung program pengembangan pertanian mandiri dan berkelanjutan kelompok tani “Tanitun Mligitani” di Desa Kebonagung melalui penyediaan pasokan energi listrik yang murah dan ramah lingkungan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan operasional, monitoring dan kontrol budidaya tanaman hortikultura metode green house. Dampak ekonomi yang ditimbulkan akibat penerapan teknologi PLT Mikrohidro ini yaitu mampu meningkatkan pendapatan, ekonomi dan kesejahteraan anggota kelompok tani melalui penurunkan biaya produksi, peningkatkan kuantitas, kualitas, dan daya saing produksi budidaya tanaman hortikultura. Sementara itu, dampak sosial yang ditimbulkan yaitu kelompok tani dan masyarakat sekitar menjadi lebih peduli (aware) terhadap pentingnya sumber energi listrik terbarukan dan teknologi pemanfaatan energi bersih, ramah lingkungan, dan berkelanjutan. Selain itu, kelompok tani dan masyarakat juga menjadi mengenal teknologi PLT Mikrohidro baik dari cara kerja, proses pembuatan, perawatan, dan keberlanjutan pengelolaannya.</p>
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