In econometric time series analysis, data which have high volatility would be very risky to be used as a basis for forecasting, including the volatility of food prices in Indonesia. Time series data have a tendency to have a constant confounding error variance over time. Appropriate econometric model to estimate such behavior is called the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. This paper attempts to use ARCH/GARCH models to explain the behavior of food price inflation in Indonesia in time period of 2005.1 to 2010.6. It is explained that by incorporating elements of ARCH/GARCH, better estimates will be achieved.
This study aims to analysis the impact of fiscal and monetary policy in Indonesian economy by using Mundell Fleming (IS-LM-BOP) model. The main objective of this paper is to see the impact of fiscal and monetary policy to Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indonesia as a small open economy with imperfectly capital mobility, so temporary thesis of the Mundell-Fleming model is that monetary policy more effective than fiscal policy in improving of the GDP, that caused by its crowding out effect yielded from expansive\ fiscal policy. A variant of the Mundell Fleming model for the Indonesian economy is constructed and analysed using the Two Stage Least Square Methods (2sls). The result of two stage least square estimation indicating that the impact of monetary policy with money supply(M2) instrument is more effective in improving GDP than fiscal policy with government expenditure instrument . This result is proved with influences which are positive and significant among money supply (M2) variable and GDP from demand side. However, goverment expenditure variables give positive effect but not significant to the GDP. These finding support the Hypothesis of model Mundell-Fleming
This paper is addresses to see how the impact of the factor price equalization in product pricesequalization. According to Heckser-Ohlin (H-O) model, trade in goods will cause the absolute and relativeprices of factor between counties to move toward equality. If free trade occurs, factor prices between countrieswill not different when countries producing the same mix of product with the same technologies and the sameproduct price must have the same factor prices. Product prices equalization will occur when the countrieshave same set unit value isoquant (UVI) and, as well under CRS condition MPL and MPk are constant alongexpansion paths of each industries
One of the analytical approaches that has been widely implemented in regional development planning is input-output (I-O) analysis. I-O analysis, based on an I-O table, can provide the basis for sectoral development planning by simulating the impact of policy scenarios. One area that has published Table I-O is Temanggung Regency, to represent its 2016 economy. Community Service Activities (PKM) aims to provide training and technical assistance to Temanggung Regency planners in using I-O analysis to design regional development planning documents. The results of this activity show that the participants technically understood and were able to analyze with Input-Output. Assistance was also carried out after the participants were able to use and analyze the Temanggung Regency I-O Table, and subsequently could become one source of information in the preparation of strategic development policies and programs.
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