Многомерная пробит-модель для априорной оценки поведенческих рисков в аудите Представлен оригинальный подход к оценке поведенческих рисков при проведении аудиторских процедур на основе многомерной пробит-модели. Зависимыми переменными в модели являлись бинарные поведенческие характеристики лиц, ответственных за формирование отчетности: толерантность к нарушениям законодательства, патологический монетарный тип личности, склонность к повышенному риску, вера в безнаказанность, неграмотность в отношении законодательства в сфере бухгалтерского учета. Получено, что одни и те же факторы склонны повышать шансы наличия одних и снижать шансы наличия других характеристик, что не позволяет сформулировать профиль «наибольшего риска». Результаты могут быть использованы аудиторами при проведении процедуры оценки риска преднамеренного искажения финансовой отчетности. Ключевые слова: многомерный пробит; эндогенность; поведенческие характеристики; риск фальсификации финансовой отчетности.
Introduction. The relevance of quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variables on macroeconomic indicators of monetary policy according to Russian data in the regional aspect is due to the absence of such research. The purpose of the article is to perform a quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on key macroeconomic variables of monetary policy on panel data by Russian regions. Materials and Methods. Russian regions were the subject of the study. For calculations, the authors have formed the information base for 79 regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2020 according to Rosstat. The applied methodology is based on the author’s approach, combining the use of factor analysis by region at fixed year and econometric modeling using integral factors obtained at the previous stage on the panel data by region. Econometric analysis was performed using a generalized method of moments and a two-stage systematic generalized method of moments. Results. The significant impact of climate change on key macroeconomic variables controlled in the development and implementation of monetary policy measures – gross regional product and consumer price index – has been identified empirically. The research was based on econometric modeling. Discussion and Conclusion. Objective climate change taking place in the Russian regions may adversely affect the economic situation, which requires intensification of implementation and development of measures aimed at improving the environmental situation: reduction of CO2 emissions, development and use of forest-saving technologies, etc. It is proposed to consider the climate situation in the implementation of monetary policy. The results of the research will be useful both in the development and implementation of regional policy, and for specialists, civil servants who plan to improve the territorial structure of the economic space of Russia in the long term.
Subject. We typified persons charged with financial reporting, who are more than inclined to misstatement risk due to fraud. Objectives. We herein develop a methodological framework for determining types of people charged with financial reporting. The typification is based on behavioral traits of the inclination to material misstatement risk. Methods. We applied multivariate statistical methods of factor and cluster analyses on the basis of empirical data we gathered in the survey of 515 employees charged with financial reporting. Results. As we found, if a person charged with financial reporting has some behavioral traits admitting the possibility of taking risk and an expectation of remaining unpunished and a pathological monetary type in case of legislative illiteracy, these signs mean the inclination to material misstatement risk due to fraud. Such people account for nine percent of the sample. One third of the sample is made up of people who are not inclined to risk at all. The neutral group in terms of the above risk comprises slightly more than one third. The remaining people (about 23 percent) can be qualified as suspicious in terms of their inclination to the above risk, which should be a reason for additional auditing procedures. Conclusions. Being not very difficult, the proposed methodological framework helps improve the efficacy of risk assessment procedures during audits. From perspectives of the inclination to business risk, determining types of employees charged with financial reports allows to decide on the necessity of additional auditing procedures when setting up the audit strategy and planning to cushion the material misstatement risks due to fraud.
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