Assessment of the Climate Impact on the Economic Variables of Monetary Policy: Regional Approach

Abstract

Introduction. The relevance of quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variables on macroeconomic indicators of monetary policy according to Russian data in the regional aspect is due to the absence of such research. The purpose of the article is to perform a quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on key macroeconomic variables of monetary policy on panel data by Russian regions. Materials and Methods. Russian regions were the subject of the study. For calculations, the authors have formed the information base for 79 regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2020 according to Rosstat. The applied methodology is based on the author’s approach, combining the use of factor analysis by region at fixed year and econometric modeling using integral factors obtained at the previous stage on the panel data by region. Econometric analysis was performed using a generalized method of moments and a two-stage systematic generalized method of moments. Results. The significant impact of climate change on key macroeconomic variables controlled in the development and implementation of monetary policy measures – gross regional product and consumer price index – has been identified empirically. The research was based on econometric modeling. Discussion and Conclusion. Objective climate change taking place in the Russian regions may adversely affect the economic situation, which requires intensification of implementation and development of measures aimed at improving the environmental situation: reduction of CO2 emissions, development and use of forest-saving technologies, etc. It is proposed to consider the climate situation in the implementation of monetary policy. The results of the research will be useful both in the development and implementation of regional policy, and for specialists, civil servants who plan to improve the territorial structure of the economic space of Russia in the long term.