Purpose: The issue of undisclosed household earnings prevalence and volume quantitative characteristics in Russia is considered in this article. Design / Methodology / Approach: The undisclosed earnings' prevalence econometric estimate was carried out on the panel data of the "Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and Health of the Population of the Higher School of Economics" (periods from 2000 to 2017) based on the Pissarides-Weber model modification, which describes the behavior of the consumer household taking into account undisclosed earning on the one hand and the relationship between income and consumption on the other hand. Findings: The households share estimates that derive undisclosed earning and the undisclosed earning share showed that they were declined during the period under review, and their contribution to poverty and inequality was indicated. Practical Implications: The presented results are important for adjusting the social and economic state policy, considering the undisclosed earnings' impact on the population wellbeing level. Originality / Value: For the first time, an econometric assessment of the undisclosed earnings of the population was carried out using microdata covering a long period of time, the trends that indicate a decrease in the prevalence and volume of undisclosed earning among Russian households during the study period have been revealed.
Purpose:The main goal of this work is to substantiate the need to consider microeconomic statistics when analyzing consumer lending to the population, as well as implementing approaches to modeling household credit behavior at the micro level. Design/Methodology/Approach: The article proposes and implements a comprehensive statistical approach that allows identifying the specificity of the influence of demographic, socio-economic characteristics of households on their credit activity. Findings: The article states that loan borrowings are more often found in households with children of preschool age who are in relatively high-income groups, who much more often inform about cash incomes that do not correspond to the declared level of consumption. Members of these households are more likely to work. The age range of borrowers expanded during the study period, and no prevalence of any age group was observed. Practical Implications: This result is of great practical importance, since, as already indicated, in assessing the solvency of the borrower, credit organizations are mainly focused on individual characteristics. Originality/value: It was found that the hypothesis that individual characteristics are important determinants of household lending activity has not been confirmed. And variables that characterize households significantly affect their credit behavior.
Introduction. The relevance of quantitative analysis of the impact of climate variables on macroeconomic indicators of monetary policy according to Russian data in the regional aspect is due to the absence of such research. The purpose of the article is to perform a quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on key macroeconomic variables of monetary policy on panel data by Russian regions. Materials and Methods. Russian regions were the subject of the study. For calculations, the authors have formed the information base for 79 regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2020 according to Rosstat. The applied methodology is based on the author’s approach, combining the use of factor analysis by region at fixed year and econometric modeling using integral factors obtained at the previous stage on the panel data by region. Econometric analysis was performed using a generalized method of moments and a two-stage systematic generalized method of moments. Results. The significant impact of climate change on key macroeconomic variables controlled in the development and implementation of monetary policy measures – gross regional product and consumer price index – has been identified empirically. The research was based on econometric modeling. Discussion and Conclusion. Objective climate change taking place in the Russian regions may adversely affect the economic situation, which requires intensification of implementation and development of measures aimed at improving the environmental situation: reduction of CO2 emissions, development and use of forest-saving technologies, etc. It is proposed to consider the climate situation in the implementation of monetary policy. The results of the research will be useful both in the development and implementation of regional policy, and for specialists, civil servants who plan to improve the territorial structure of the economic space of Russia in the long term.
The share of the shadow economy in the GDP of Russia and by region — in the GRP of the regions, was estimated in the study, based on quarterly data. The methodology included two approaches — structural modeling and using of the cash demand model. Estimation of consumer price index elasticity factors by the share of shadow economy in GDP/GRP was carried out. Comparison of empirical results of the study with obtained other authors and other methods, both by country and by region, showed their comparability.
Purpose. This paper goes into detail on the advantages of a risk-based
The purpose of the research is to assess factors influencing the rescaling of the shadow economy in the Russian Federation (on the example of certain regions). The analysis was carried out using mathematical and statistical methods according to regional statistics for 2013–2019. In particular, a model of multiple indicators and factors (MIMIC) was built. It adapted to the panel data structure. Variables characterizing the tax burden, government regulation and the state of the labor market were used as factors. As indicators of the shadow economy – monetary variables and characteristics of the formal economy.It is shown that in the conditions of economic difficulties there was a «compression» of the scale of the shadow economy in certain regions. According to the authors, a significant role in reducing the shadow component in the regional economy over the period under review was played by the improvement of the tax administration mechanism in the process of forming regional and local budgets (personal income tax, property taxes) as well as coordination of interdepartmental interaction in order to reliably determine the size of the taxable base. The positive role of preferential taxation regimes, which can be established by regional authorities, was proved. A significant impact on the scale of shadow activity of the structure of the regional economy and conditions in the labor market was discovered: a high share of the extractive industry and an increase in wages in the region compared to the average Russian level create incentives for participation in the formal economy and reducing the scale of the shadow economy.The modeling results confirmed the relevance of shadow economy indicators: the larger size of the regional shadow economy entails less participation in the labor force and an increase in cash turnover.The conclusions obtained from a new angle focus on the task of improving the investment climate, reducing pressure on entrepreneurship, and supporting small and medium-sized businesses.
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