Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

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Question: Is there a difference in plant species and life form composition between two major patch types at a biome transition zone? Are subordinate species associated with different patch types at the shortgrass steppe — Chihuahuan desert grassland transition zone? Is this association related to differences in soil texture between patch types and the geographic range of associated species? Location: central New Mexico, USA. Methods: Patches dominated by either Bouteloua gracilis, the dominant species in the shortgrass steppe, or Bouteloua eriopoda, dominant species in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, were sampled for the occurrence of subordinate species and soil texture within a 1500‐ha transitional mosaic of patches. Results: Of the 52 subordinate species analysed, 16 species were associated with B. gracilis‐dominated patches and 12 species with B. eriopoda‐dominated patches. Patches dominated by B. gracilis were richer in annual grasses and forbs, whereas patches dominated by B. eriopoda contained more perennials forbs and shrubs. Soils of B. gracilis‐dominated patches had higher clay and lower rock contents compared with soils of B. eriopoda‐dominated patches. Differences in species characteristics of the dominant species as well as differences in soil texture between patch types contribute to patch‐scale variation in composition. The association of species to patch types was not related to their geographic range and occurrence in the adjacent biomes. Conclusions: Patch types at this biome transition zone have characteristic life‐form and species composition, but species are associated to patch types due to local constraints, independently from their affinity to the adjacent biomes.

Question: In the same landscape context — at a desert grassland‐shrubland transition zone, how does subdominant plant abundance vary in microsites around dominant grasses and shrubs? Location: Sevilleta LTER, New Mexico, USA (34°21’N; 106°53’W; 1650 m a.s.l.). Methods: We compared the distribution of subdominant plants in canopy, canopy edge and interspace microsites around individual shrubs (Larrea tridentata) and grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda) at a transition zone that has been encroached by shrubs within the past 50 ‐ 100 a. Plots of variable size according to microsite type and dominant plant size were sampled. Results: Subdominant abundance was higher in microsites around L. tridentata shrubs than in microsites around B. eriopoda. Furthermore, differences in species abundance and composition were higher among microsites around grasses than among microsites around shrubs. The distribution of subdominants was mostly explained by their phenological characteristics, which indicates the importance of temporal variation in resources to their persistence. Conclusions: This study of coexistence patterns around dominants revealed ecological contrasts between two dominant life forms, but other factors (such as disturbances) have to be taken into consideration to evaluate landscape‐scale diversity.