Self-replicating gene drives that can spread deleterious alleles through animal populations have been promoted as a much needed but controversial 'silver bullet' for controlling invasive alien species. Homing-based drives comprise an endonuclease and a guide RNA (gRNA) that are replicated during meiosis via homologous recombination. However, their efficacy for controlling wild populations is threatened by inherent polymorphic resistance and the creation of resistance alleles via non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ)-mediated DNA repair. We used stochastic individual-based models to identify realistic gene-drive strategies capable of eradicating vertebrate pest populations (mice, rats and rabbits) on islands. One popular strategy, a sex-reversing drive that converts heterozygous females into sterile males, failed to spread and required the ongoing deployment of gene-drive carriers to achieve eradication. Under alternative strategies, multiplexed gRNAs could overcome inherent polymorphic resistance and were required for eradication success even when the probability of NHEJ was low. Strategies causing homozygotic embryonic non-viability or homozygotic female sterility produced high probabilities of eradication and were robust to NHEJ-mediated deletion of the DNA sequence between multiplexed endonuclease recognition sites. The latter two strategies also purged the gene drive when eradication failed, therefore posing lower long-term risk should animals escape beyond target islands. Multiplexing gRNAs will be necessary if this technology is to be useful for insular extirpation attempts; however, precise knowledge of homing rates will be required to design low-risk gene drives with high probabilities of eradication success.
ContextAustralia has a high diversity of endemic vertebrate fauna. Yet, transnational human activities continue to increase the rate of transportation, introduction and establishment of new alien vertebrates in Australia, to the detriment of environmental and socioeconomic services. Eradication of invasive vertebrates is often costly and without guarantee of success; therefore, methods for detecting, intercepting and preventing the transport of alien species earlier in the invasion pathway provide substantial benefit. AimTo anticipate emergent threats to Australian biosecurity posed by the transport and introduction of new alien vertebrates over time. MethodsWe collated vertebrate interception data from various mainland Australian State, Territory and Commonwealth government reporting agencies, including data from a previously published study, at both pre-border and post-border stages from 1999 to 2016. Using generalised linear and generalised additive modelling, we predicted trends in interception frequency using predictors such as vertebrate taxa, detection category and alien status. Key resultsInterception frequency increased over time for all vertebrate classes, for pre-border stowaways and for post-border captive and at-large interceptions, with no saturation in the accumulation of new species over time. Five species were responsible for almost half of all incidents, of which red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor) and corn snakes (Pantherophis guttatus) are prominent in Australia’s illegal alien pet trade. Rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) are prominent in the legal alien cage-bird trade, which remains poorly regulated. Asian common toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) were frequently detected as stowaways, and most stowaway incidents originated from Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, via shipping. Data deficiency for pre-border incidents increased rapidly in 2015 and 2016. ConclusionsAustralia is subject to a persistent and increasing risk of alien vertebrate introductions and incursions over time, owing partly to emergent trends in the alien pet trade as well as increased global trade and tourism. ImplicationsThe future of Australia’s biosecurity remains dependent on stringent border security to prevent the arrival of novel species, but our findings also highlight the importance of ongoing management and control of high-risk species already present, often illegally, within Australia.
Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999–2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a “weighted cumulative impact” score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy.
Biological invasions have the potential to cause extensive ecological and economic damage. Maritime trade facilitates biological invasions by transferring species in ballast water, and on ships' hulls. With volumes of maritime trade increasing globally, efforts to prevent these biological invasions are of significant importance. Both the International Maritime Organization and the Australian government have developed policy seeking to reduce the risk of these invasions. In this study, we constructed models for the transfer of ballast water into Australian waters, based on historic ballast survey data. We used these models to hindcast ballast water discharge over all vessels that arrived in Australian waters between 1999 and 2012. We used models for propagule survival to compare the risk of ballast-mediated propagule transport between ecoregions. We found that total annual ballast discharge volume into Australia more than doubled over the study period, with the vast majority of ballast water discharge and propagule pressure associated with bulk carrier traffic. As such, the ecoregions suffering the greatest risk are those associated with the export of mining commodities. As global marine trade continues to increase, effective monitoring and biosecurity policy will remain necessary to combat the risk of future marine invasion events.
Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the "range bagging" method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high-risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.
We obtained 14,140 interception records of ants arriving in Australia between 1986 and 2010 to examine taxonomic and biogeographic patterns of invasion. We also evaluated how trade and transport data influenced interception rates, the identity of species being transported, the commerce most associated with the transport of ants, and which countries are the primary sources for ants arriving in Australia. The majority of ant interceptions, accounting for 48% of interceptions, were from Asia and Oceania. The top commodities associated with ant interceptions were: (1) Live trees, plants, cut flowers; (2) Wood and wood products; (3) Edible vegetables; and (4) Edible fruit and nuts. The best fitting model for predicting ant interceptions included volumes for these four commodities, as well as total trade value, transport volume, and geographic distance (with increased distance decreasing predicted ant interceptions). Intercepted ants identified to species consisted of a combination of species native to Australia, introduced species already established in Australia, and species not yet known to be established. 82% of interceptions identified to species level were of species already known to be established in Australia with Paratrechina longicornis having the most records. These data provide key biogeographic insight into the overlooked transport stage of the invasion process. Given the difficult nature of eradication, once an ant species is firmly established, focusing on early detection and quarantine is key for reducing the establishment of new invasions.
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