Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Abstract

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the "range bagging" method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high-risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.

Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis

“…Their research has many interesting findings, including the fact that the public is optimistic about their personal safety, but more pessimistic about the safety of their possessions such as cars, buildings, etc. The previously mentioned article by Cope et al (2019) contributes to this stage by developing an interactive web app so users may observe how the risk of invasive species changes with changes in the model parameters. Sundell et al (2019), also mentioned before, show how mapped risk areas and the results of the sensitivity analysis could be used to support decision making and communication with stakeholders about mitigation and monitoring measures.…”

“…Cope, Ross, Wittmann, Watts, and Cassey () study the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions by adapting the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between areas. They classify patterns of global invasion into Australian states and territories, validate them, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia.…”

“…The previously mentioned article by Cope et al. () contributes to this stage by developing an interactive web app so users may observe how the risk of invasive species changes with changes in the model parameters. Sundell et al.…”

Coyote (Canis latrans) in South America: potential routes of colonization

“…The increase of human activities has changed the environment, and natural barriers have ceased to be a factor limiting coyote distribution. For this reason, we included variables of land use and anthropic influence, since their relationship has been reported as important for the expansion of the coyote and other invasive species (Vaughan 1983;Bekoff & Gese 2003;Cove et al 2012;Cope et al 2017). The most important variables positively associated with the coyote presence were human population density and crops, both related to human activity.…”

La dimensión geográfica de las invasiones biológicas en el Antropoceno: el caso de Xylella fastidiosa

“…En conclusión, la nueva Biogeografía debe priorizar el estudio de los riesgos biológicos vinculados con la globalización (Cope et al, 2017) y ocuparse también del estado de salud de la Tierra (Murray et al, 2018), prestando especial atención a la incidencia del cambio climático en la redistribución natural y antrópica de la biodiversidad (Wang et al, 2017), y priorizando la planificación y la prevención, dado que los estadios iniciales de las invasiones biológicas son los que concentran los mayores impactos en los ecosistemas y agrosistemas (Závorka et al, 2018). En el marco global del Antropoceno, se requiere una acción colectiva y coordinada que minimice los principales riesgos ambientales de nuestra época (Steffen et al, 2018).…”