SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DA...

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

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Background Social circumstances in which people live and work impact the population’s mental health. We aimed to synthesise evidence identifying effective interventions and policies that influence the social determinants of mental health at national or scaled population level. We searched five databases (Cochrane Library, Global Health, MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) between Jan 1st 2000 and July 23rd 2019 to identify systematic reviews of population-level interventions or policies addressing a recognised social determinant of mental health and collected mental health outcomes. There were no restrictions on country, sub-population or age. A narrative overview of results is provided. Quality assessment was conducted using Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2). This study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019140198). Results We identified 20 reviews for inclusion. Most reviews were of low or critically low quality. Primary studies were mostly observational and from higher income settings. Higher quality evidence indicates more generous welfare benefits may reduce socioeconomic inequalities in mental health outcomes. Lower quality evidence suggests unemployment insurance, warm housing interventions, neighbourhood renewal, paid parental leave, gender equality policies, community-based parenting programmes, and less restrictive migration policies are associated with improved mental health outcomes. Low quality evidence suggests restriction of access to lethal means and multi-component suicide prevention programmes are associated with reduced suicide risk. Conclusion This umbrella review has identified a small and overall low-quality evidence base for population level interventions addressing the social determinants of mental health. There are significant gaps in the evidence base for key policy areas, which limit ability of national policymakers to understand how to effectively improve population mental health.

Identifying individuals at high risk of chronic diseases via easily measured biomarkers could improve public health efforts to prevent avoidable illness and death. Here we present nuclear magnetic resonance blood metabolomics from half a million samples from three national biobanks. We built metabolomic risk scores that identify a high-risk group for each of 12 diseases that cause the most morbidity in high-income countries and show consistent cross-biobank replication of the relative risk of disease for these groups. We show that these metabolomic risk scores are more strongly associated with future disease onset than polygenic scores for most of these diseases. In a subset of 18,000 individuals with metabolomic biomarkers measured at two time points we show that people whose scores change have dramatically different future risk of disease, suggesting that repeat measurements capture the benefits of lifestyle change. We show cross-biobank calibration of our scores. Since metabolomics can be measured from a standard blood sample, we propose such tests can be feasibly implemented today in preventative health programs.

ObjectivesTo determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease.DesignMendelian randomization study, where genetic data are used as proxies for education, in order to minimize confounding. A two-sample design was applied, where summary level genetic data was analysed from two publically available consortia.SettingIn the main analysis, we analysed genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAM and SSGAC), comprising of 112 cohorts from predominantly high-income countries. In addition, we also analysed genetic data from 7 additional large consortia, in order to identify putative causal mediators.ParticipantsThe main analysis was of 589 377 men and women, predominantly of European origin.ExposureA one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (i.e. 3.6 years of additional schooling). This was measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education.Main outcomeCombined fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events).Results3.6 years of additional education lowered the risk of coronary heart disease by a third (odds ratio = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.77, p=0.01). Equivalent increases in education were also causally associated with reductions in smoking, BMI and improvements in blood lipid profiles.ConclusionsMore time spent in education is causally associated with a large reduction in the risk of coronary heart disease. This may be partly explained by changes to smoking, BMI and a blood lipids. These findings offer support for policy interventions that increase education, in order to also reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease.

Key PointsQuestionWhat is the role of body mass index, systolic blood pressure and smoking in mediating the effect of education on cardiovascular disease risk?FindingWe find consistent evidence that body mass index, systolic blood pressure and smoking mediate the effect of education, explaining up to 18%, 27% and 33% respectively. Including all three risk factors in a model together explains around 40% of the effect of education.MeaningIntervening on body mass index, systolic blood pressure and smoking would lead to reductions in cases of CVD attributable to lower levels of education. Over half of the effect of education on risk of cardiovascular disease is not mediated through these risk factors.ImportanceLower levels of education are causally related to higher cardiovascular risk, but the extent to which this is driven by modifiable risk factors also associated with education is unknown.ObjectiveTo investigate the role of body mass index, systolic blood pressure and smoking in explaining the effect of education on risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes.DesignMultivariable regression analysis of observational data and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of genetic data.SettingUK Biobank and international genome-wide association study consortia.ParticipantsPredominantly individuals of European ancestry.Main outcomes and measuresThe effects of education (per 1-standard deviation increase, equivalent to 3.6 years) on coronary heart disease, cardiovascular disease (all subtypes), myocardial infarction and stroke risk (all measured in odds ratio, OR), and the degree to which this is mediated through body mass index, systolic blood pressure and smoking.ResultsEach additional standard deviation of education associated with 13% lower risk of coronary heart disease (OR 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84 to 0.89) in observational analysis and 37% lower risk (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.67) in Mendelian randomization analysis. As a proportion of the total risk reduction, body mass index mediated 15% (95% CI 13% to 17%) and 18% (95% CI 14% to 23%) in the observational and Mendelian randomization estimates, respectively. Corresponding estimates for systolic blood pressure were 11% (95% CI 9% to 13%) and 21% (95% CI 15% to 27%), and for smoking, 19% (15% to 22%) and 33% (95% CI 17% to 49%). All three risk factors combined mediated 42% (95% CI 36% to 48%) and 36% (95 % CI 16% to 63%) of the effect of education on coronary heart disease in observational and Mendelian randomization respectively. Similar results were obtained when investigating risk of stroke, myocardial infarction and all-cause cardiovascular disease.Conclusions and relevanceBMI, SBP and smoking mediate a substantial proportion of the protective effect of education on risk of cardiovascular outcomes and intervening on these would lead to reductions in cases of CVD attributable to lower levels of education. However, more than half of the protective effect of education remains unexplained and requires further investigation.

We investigated the relationship between ‘epigenetic age’ (EA) derived from DNA methylation (DNAm) and myocardial infarction (MI)/acute coronary syndrome (ACS). A random population sample was examined in 2003/2005 (n = 9360, 45–69, the HAPIEE project) and followed up for 15 years. From this cohort, incident MI/ACS (cases, n = 129) and age- and sex-stratified controls (n = 177) were selected for a nested case-control study. Baseline EA (Horvath’s, Hannum’s, PhenoAge, Skin and Blood) and the differences between EA and chronological age (CA) were calculated (ΔAHr, ΔAHn, ΔAPh, ΔASB). EAs by Horvath’s, Hannum’s and Skin and Blood were close to CA (median absolute difference, MAD, of 1.08, –1.91 and –2.03 years); PhenoAge had MAD of −9.29 years vs. CA. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of MI/ACS per 1–year increments of ΔAHr, ΔAHn, ΔASB and ΔAPh were 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.07), 1.01 (95% CI 0.95–1.08), 1.02 (95% CI 0.97–1.06) and 1.01 (0.93–1.09), respectively. When classified into tertiles, only the highest tertile of ΔAPh showed a suggestion of increased risk of MI/ACS with OR 2.09 (1.11–3.94) independent of age and 1.84 (0.99–3.52) in the age- and sex-adjusted model. Metabolic modulation may be the likely mechanism of this association. In conclusion, this case-control study nested in a prospective population-based cohort did not find strong associations between accelerated epigenetic age markers and risk of MI/ACS. Larger cohort studies are needed to re-examine this important research question.