In the conditions of functioning of economic relations, which arise between subjects of the financial system of Ukraine, the question of creating safe conditions for their activity is increasingly being raised. Attention is paid to the investigation of the state of financial security of the country as a component of economic security, in terms of its key elements, which allows attention to the most important indicators and to develop measures to prevent existing threats.The purpose of the paper is to forecast the level of financial security of the country based on regression analysis of impacts factors. The object of the study is the financial system as a mechanism, which is aimed at the activities of financial security subjects of the country to ensure its proper level. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found that changing in the country’s banking security by 1% will decrease the overall financial security index by 0.04 points, while the non-banking market will grow by 0.07 and the monetary component will decrease by 0.51.Based on the calculation of the arithmetic mean of absolute deviations of independent variables, the estimated value of Ukraine’s financial security level is calculated, which is 40.09% in 2018.Proposals for improving the “Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine” will help to solve the problem of mathematical substantiation of the choice of indicators for assessing financial security, minimize risks, eliminate subjectivity and improve the efficiency and the quality of the country’s financial security assessment methodology.The article deals with the issues of the financial component of economic security as the main element of ensuring sustainable financial development of the country.
Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.
Financial security is characterized by the state's ability to ensure stability of the country's financial and economic development and includes the security of various economic activities and spheres of social life. The article assesses the security of the components of Ukraine’s financial sector and calculates the overall level of financial security in this country. The author considers the current mechanism for determining the level of financial security. To date, in Ukraine, the Methodology for determining the level of financial security is in force, which is approved by the Ministry of Economy based on the "Methodological recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine" created according to a quantitative study of indicators characterizing the level of Ukraine’s overall economic security and that of financial security as its priority component. Calculated security levels of the financial sectors, namely those of the banking sector and the non-banking financial sector, as well as debt, budget, currency and monetary security. The most problematic is the debt sector whose security level averages 16.9% for the analyzed period. The overall level of financial security has a downward trend (44% in 2021). Ukraine's economy is not protected from financial threats and imbalances. The author identifies a few shortcomings in the above mentioned Methodology. As it was developed in 2013, its indicators no longer reflect the real situatioin in the country, while its methods mainly focus on analyzing financial indicators and ignore non-financial information, external factors, and the impact excerted on overall financial security by its individual components. The article points to the need to improve the mechanism of assessing the level of national financial security and provides a series of corresponding proposals.
Modern transformations of banks' business models are taking place under the influence of innovative technologies. That is why the most important tasks of the formation of business strategies of banks should be considered not only the achievement of internal benchmarks for the efficiency of business processes and compliance with regulatory requirements regarding the stability of operations but also for ensuring the bank's information security, its technological readiness for the challenges of the external environment, which collectively forms a business the bank's strategy. The article aims to research and summarize the theoretical and methodological foundations of the formation and implementation of the bank's strategy and the development a cyclical transformational business model for banks. The work determined that in conditions of high turbulence and uncertainty of the environment for the implementation of strategic management influences, the bank's business model should be flexible and adaptive, which may require the application of its transformation regime (implementation of the bank's transformational business model). Under the condition of effective strategic management of the bank, such a business model transformation is possible, which will ensure its viability and stability at each phase of the bank's life cycle, despite the adverse influence of exogenous and endogenous factors. The results of the study show that the application of the empirical model of the bank's life cycle, systemic, synergistic approaches and postulates of chaos theory allows for substantiation of the model of the cyclical transformative business model of the bank, which summarizes and formalizes the stages of its life cycle with the allocation of phases of development, intensive and extensive implementation, bifurcation, degradation and collapse of the bank's business model; takes into account the multivariate, alternative development of the bank at the bifurcation points when the processes become chaotic, and there is a transition to a new attractor. The application of the model of cyclical transformation of the business model of banks developed in work allows to form intra-bank measures for the introduction of a transformational business model and to adapt the bank's business strategy to the environment of implementation of strategic management influences on this basis.
Дослідження спрямоване на аналіз ймовірності участі фінансових посередників у тіньових операціях. Здійснено пошук та підбір показників на основі аналізу найбільших статистичних баз даних міжнародних організацій, а саме Світового Банку, Глобальної коаліції проти корупції та Міжнародного валютного фонду. Протидія відмиванню коштів з подальшою їх легалізацією, стає пріоритетним напрямком для фінансово-економічної безпеки держави. Тіньова складова найбільше спостерігається в діяльності агентів яких сконцентровано найбільший відсоток грошових коштів фінансової системи. В Україні це дві найбільших секторальні групи: бізнес сфера-представники великого, малого та середнього бізнесу, а також фінансові посередники, такі як банки, кредитні спілки, страхові компанії, ломбарди, фінансові компанії, та недержавні пенсійні фонди. В Україні розкриття інформації щодо нелегальної діяльності фінансових посередників здійснюється вітчизняними наглядовими органами: Національним Банком та Державною службою фінансового моніторингу України, а статистику за основними показниками діяльності небанківських фінансових установ веде Національна комісія, що здійснює державне регулювання ринку фінансових послуг в Україні. Щоб достовірно визначити рівень тіньової сфери в економіці України необхідно спочатку ефективно виявити основні показники фінансового посередництва, що займається Ключові слова: показники тіньових операцій; неформальна економіка; тіньова економіка; фінансові посередники; легалізація (відмивання) доходів, отриманих злочинним шляхом.
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