Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

Abstract

Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

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La auditoría de estados financieros como componente de la seguridad económica y financiera de una empresa bajo la ley marcial: enfoques y análisis

“…In view of this, it is necessary to analyse which indicators are proposed to be calculated by different researchers (Table 2). Compiled by the author on the basis of (Pronoza et al, 2022;Hrynyuk et al, 2021;Franchuk et al, 2020;Kvasnytska et al, 2019;Fedorushchenko et al, 2021;Poltorak et al, 2021;Sylkin et al, 2018;Rekunenko et al, 2022;De Goede, 2021;Shkolnyk et al, 2019) .…”

“…One of the key links in this process is the analysis and assessment of the level of financial security of an enterprise (FSE). Determining the level of financial security of an institution is still an open problem at the national level, which leads to scientific research on the optimal methodological approach to determining the level of FSB (Hrynyuk et al, 2021;Rekunenko et al, 2022;Tkachuk et al, 2022), which will provide an overall picture of the state of protection of the financial interests of the institution.…”

Regulatory Policy of Tax Revenues Efficiency Assurance as the Dominant of State Economic Security

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“…Assessing indicators of regression statistics, in particular, R 2 , it was found that constructed models of variables sufficiently determine the variable B at the significance level of 0.5 and reliability of 0.95. Fisher's coefficient indicates a high degree of built models' adequacy in terms of economic performance of the studied countries.…”