A feature of modern crop production is the acute need to accelerate its scientific and technological development, on the basis of innovative processes. The sector of crop production has an essential dependence on external factors and the modern directions in its scientific and technological development should also reduce dependence on external factors and to improve controllability by reducing the uncertainty of responses to external influences. The methodology of scenario forecasting, adapted to the crop production gives the opportunity to answer the questions such as, for example as:
How the determinants of the development of the crop sector will change? What future bifurcation points may occur? What strategic decisions can be made? What consequences these decisions will bring in future?
Among the stages of long-term forecasting, the special part is assigned to development of scenarios of development. Scenario prediction allows, based on the available data, to suppose the development and behavior of the object under study in the future. As a result, it becomes possible to develop strategic and tactical solutions based on the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The peculiarity of this method is that it is applicable in situations of uncertainty of the object's reactions to various external influences.
The development of scenarios allows to surmount the stochastic nature of the processes occurring in the scientific and technological sphere, to expose large-scale scientific and technological breakthroughs that can significantly change the crop sector. Scenario approach as much as possible forces out uncertainty of choice space between scenarios.
The article shows that the Novosibirsk region can occupy an important niche in the development of organic agriculture in Russia. There are more than 65 thousand hectares of fallow lands in the region, which are most suitable for putting into circulation for organic farming, as well as 1.097 peasant (farmer) enterprises and 2.783 individual entrepreneurs engaged in agricultural production. It is calculated that in each district of the Novosibirsk region, on average, 10% of grain crops in K(F)X can be transferred to organic production, i.e. 44.6 thousand hectares. This will make it possible to produce 671.7 thousand centners of organic grain, while the possible losses during the transition to this type of production will amount to 74.6 thousand centners. A list of organic farming technologies for the region is proposed.
In modern conditions of a high level of uncertainty in the development of science, engineering and technology in economic sectors, it is necessary to learn how to manage this long-term process purposefully, which is possible through forecasting tools, for example, foresight methodology. This is especially true for agriculture, and in particular for the crop sector, where the level of uncertainty is much higher than in other sectors due to work with living organisms and the impact on the results of production of natural and climatic conditions. The consistent use of foresight tools made it possible to develop a Strategy for the scientific and technological development of the crop industry for the Novosibirsk region, the algorithm of which is presented in this article. The main feature of the Strategy will be the identification of promising areas of scientific and technological development depending on the natural and agricultural zoning of the region, which allows one to take into account the specifics of different regions of the Novosibirsk region to build a more accurate and high-quality forecast.
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