The author considers the current financial status and the efficiency of agriculture in Russia, evidenced from the Novosibirsk Region, as one of the leading food producers in Siberia. The basic disadvantages in the system of indicators to assess the effectiveness of state-run programs and the use of state support for the agricultural industry development are identified. The author has proposed the indicators enabling one to objectively reflect the current status of agricultural producers. These indicators can be used by the state when creating favorable conditions for expanded and innovative reproduction. They were used to determine deficiency of the state funding of the agricultural industry at different types of reproduction.
The innovative development of the grain sector develops in a wave-like manner, with alternating periods of growth and decline in the yield indicator. The innovation activity of agricultural organizations is currently increasing. The analysis shows the industry’s transition to a new technological stage. The priority directions of scientific and technological development are the technologies of grain yield increase, such as biotechnologies of effective accelerated breeding and intensive technologies in seed production; precision farming; biological and organic farming, as well as advanced technologies’ phytomelioration.
A feature of modern crop production is the acute need to accelerate its scientific and technological development, on the basis of innovative processes. The sector of crop production has an essential dependence on external factors and the modern directions in its scientific and technological development should also reduce dependence on external factors and to improve controllability by reducing the uncertainty of responses to external influences. The methodology of scenario forecasting, adapted to the crop production gives the opportunity to answer the questions such as, for example as:
How the determinants of the development of the crop sector will change? What future bifurcation points may occur? What strategic decisions can be made? What consequences these decisions will bring in future?
Among the stages of long-term forecasting, the special part is assigned to development of scenarios of development. Scenario prediction allows, based on the available data, to suppose the development and behavior of the object under study in the future. As a result, it becomes possible to develop strategic and tactical solutions based on the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The peculiarity of this method is that it is applicable in situations of uncertainty of the object's reactions to various external influences.
The development of scenarios allows to surmount the stochastic nature of the processes occurring in the scientific and technological sphere, to expose large-scale scientific and technological breakthroughs that can significantly change the crop sector. Scenario approach as much as possible forces out uncertainty of choice space between scenarios.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.