Crop production in Russia 2030: Scenarios based on data from the scientific and technological development of the sector

Abstract

A feature of modern crop production is the acute need to accelerate its scientific and technological development, on the basis of innovative processes. The sector of crop production has an essential dependence on external factors and the modern directions in its scientific and technological development should also reduce dependence on external factors and to improve controllability by reducing the uncertainty of responses to external influences. The methodology of scenario forecasting, adapted to the crop production gives the opportunity to answer the questions such as, for example as: How the determinants of the development of the crop sector will change? What future bifurcation points may occur? What strategic decisions can be made? What consequences these decisions will bring in future? Among the stages of long-term forecasting, the special part is assigned to development of scenarios of development. Scenario prediction allows, based on the available data, to suppose the development and behavior of the object under study in the future. As a result, it becomes possible to develop strategic and tactical solutions based on the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The peculiarity of this method is that it is applicable in situations of uncertainty of the object's reactions to various external influences. The development of scenarios allows to surmount the stochastic nature of the processes occurring in the scientific and technological sphere, to expose large-scale scientific and technological breakthroughs that can significantly change the crop sector. Scenario approach as much as possible forces out uncertainty of choice space between scenarios.

Agro-industrial and fishery complex of the Russian Far East: Data on investment projects and transport connectivity

“…Some products (3.2 million tons) will be exported (Egypt, China, India, etc.) [ 6 , 7 ] ( Fig. 1 , Table 1 ).…”

Agroindastrial complex of the Chuvash Republic: intra-regional and All-Russian significance

“…Special attention began to be paid to the development of the agroindustrial complex. It was not only about import substitution [3], but also about increasing exports of products [4][5]. In 2018, within the framework of the national project "International cooperation and export", the federal project «Export of agricultural products» [6] begins to be implemented.…”

Sustainable Condition of the Agricultural Sector’s Environmental, Economic, and Social Components from the Perspective of Open Innovation

“…However, as evidenced by the analysis of practical achievements [31,32], there have been no significant changes in the shaping of innovative agriculture in the region. The problem is not in the lack of highfrequency scientific products but in a much lower level of solvent demand for their development and practical implementation on the part of the agro-industrial sector in comparison with other sectors of the economy in Russia and other Eastern European countries [31][32][33]. This, in turn, is the result of the low level of profitability of agricultural enterprises, the high level of their debt burden, and the lack of own funds.…”