Present methods for forecasting and evaluation of thermal power plants reliability were based on appliance of statistics and probability calcu lation related to strength and in the same time lean ing on modern methods for deterministic project-constructive calculations of elements, subsystems and systems. Applying the advantages of modern directions in system reengineering and structural or RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) way of using the best methods in reliability analysis of complex systems, the block diagram of mod ified method for basis referential 300 MW block has been created. As a starting database, the results of research of basic configurations of thermal power p lants for solid fuel "Ug ljev ik" and "Gacko" with nominal referential power of 300 MW were used. For other facilities inside thermal power p lants witch no minal power differs fro m 300 MW, recalcu lation of reliability indicators has to be carried out. Whereat the simple emp irical relation in dependence of previously determined reliability indicator for 300 MW system is used so as the exponent determined on basis of statistical data processing from the exp loitation during the lifespan of the power plant. The method is of the iterative nature and is about to be terminated as the starting hypothesis related to matching of results of the forecasting and real exploitation results affirms. The research related for suggested modified method gave several relat ively new results which are presented inside the paper. The result represents the algorithm of modified method for evaluation of reliability of referential thermal power plant system and its modificat ion aiming to include thermal power plants of other nominal powers.
At the level of design of thermal power plants (TPP), when making decisions related to the choice of its macro location and micro location, disposition solution and equipment structure, the choice of the right decision method is of particular importance. Multi criteria analysis involves solving inadequately structured problems, while in practical terms it is a necessary tool in solving the day-to-day tasks of decision-making, management actions, both at the design level and the exploitation of complex energy and process systems. The development of new methods and the improvement of existing multi criteria analysis methods have influenced their increasing application in the field of energy, from both theoretical and practical aspects. A particular segment of the application of multi criteria analysis methods is to make strategic or operational decisions when solving multidisciplinary problems with predominantly technical or predominantly economic content, whether looking at a part or the energy system as a whole. The application of these methods in choosing the right solutions in the decision-making tasks of management in the design, maintenance and operation of thermal power plants is based on the development of information technology and computer technology. There are several methods in use today, of which the following should be emphasized: PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization METHod of Enrichment Evaluation), AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), IKOR, ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choice Translating REality), MAX-MIN, MAX-MAX, Hurwicz (combination of max-max and max-min methods), SAW (Simple Additive Weighting Method), TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), conjunctive method, disjunctive method, etc. Depending on the method used, the ranking of alternatives or criteria, the best alternative or criterion or set of alternatives or criteria that meet certain conditions is obtained as a solution. Problems that can be considered using multi-criteria decision-making have certain common characteristics: a large number of criteria that must be created by the decision maker, a high likelihood of conflict between the criteria, inseparable (different) units of measure (as a rule, each criterion has different units of measure), as well as design or the choice of optimal concepts in a predetermined space. Solutions are either designing the best alternative or choosing the best action from a set of predefined final actions. This paper provides a brief description of the more important methods, along with an analysis of their advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibility of applying them to solve the specific problem of choosing a micro location for TPP. Starting from the application of the modified multi criteria method for determining the priorities between individual alternatives for ranking and selecting the optimal micro location within a certain macro location within a predetermined framework, in a decision situation involving a number of decision makers of different specialty, examples of micro location selection for new thermal power facilities of TPP Stanari are given, TPP Gacko 2 and TPP Ugljevik 3, with preliminary definition of elimination criteria and criteria for comparison of locations of given TPPs.
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