ABSTRACT:The observed warming of the surface air temperature (SAT) over the last 50 years has not been homogenous. There are strong differences in the temperature changes both geographically and on different time frames. Here, we review the observed diurnal asymmetry in the global warming trend: the night-time temperatures have increased more rapidly than day-time temperatures. Several explanations for this asymmetric warming have been offered in the literature. These generally relate differences in the temperature trends to regionalized feedback effects, such as changes to cloud cover, precipitation or soil moisture. Here, we discuss a complementary mechanism through which the planetary boundary layer (PBL) modulates the SAT response to changes in the surface energy balance. This reciprocal relationship between boundary-layer depth and temperature response can explain a part of why the night-time has warmed more rapidly than the daytime. We used a multi-linear regression model to compare the effect of the PBL, cloud cover, precipitation and soil moisture on the SAT. From this, we demonstrate that it is the boundary-layer depth which is the strongest predictor of the strength of temperature trends in the boreal annual cycle, and in all seasons except the summer.
While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using an ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for a quantitative comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely Climatic Change (2016)
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5 ensemble and the ERA5 reanalysis for the period 1979 to 2004. The principal purpose of this assessment is to provide an overview of the ability of the CMIP6 ensemble to represent the Arctic climate, and to see how this has changed since the last phase of CMIP. Overall, we find a distinct improvement in the representation of the sea ice volume and extent, the latter mostly linked to improvements in the seasonal cycle in the Barents Sea. However, numerous model biases have persisted into CMIP6 including too-cold conditions in the winter (4 K cold bias) and a negative trend in the day-to-day variability over ice in winter. We find that under the low emission scenario, SSP126, the Arctic climate is projected to stabilize by 2060 with an annual mean sea ice extent of around 2.5 million km2 and an annual mean temperature 4.7 K warmer than the early 20th century average, compared to 1.7 K of warming globally.
A band of cooling that extends across mid-latitude Eurasia is identified in the wintertime surface air temperatures of the latest ECMWF reanalysis. This cooling is related to extreme warming around the Kara Sea through changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Surface temperatures in the Arctic have risen faster than those at lower latitudes, and as the Arctic warming increases, this north-south temperature gradient is weakened. This change in the meridional temperature gradient causes a decrease in the westerly winds that help maintain the mild European climate by transporting heat from the Atlantic. Since decreasing sea ice concentrations have been shown to be a driving factor in Arctic amplification, a singular value decomposition analysis is used to confirm the co-variability of the Arctic sea ice, including the Kara Sea, and the temperatures over the mid-latitude Eurasia. These findings suggest that decreasing sea ice concentrations can change the meridional temperature gradient and hence the large-scale atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere.
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