A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia

Outten, Stephen; Esau, Igor

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z

Cited by 118 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…A resemblance of atmospheric response to negative AO was also detected by Outten and Esau (2012). On the basis of ERA-Interim reanalysis, they identified cooling trends of wintertime near-surface air temperature along a band that extends across mid-latitude Eurasia.…”

Section: Studies Based On Observations and Reanalysesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

2014

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The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia.

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Section: Studies Based On Observations and Reanalysesmentioning

confidence: 72%

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

2014

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“…5, 6b, d, respectively. However, there are many studies indicated that the Arctic sea ice and enhanced Arctic warming influenced the SAT variability over mid-latitude NH continents significantly in last decades (Outten and Esau 2012;Cohen et al 2014;Mori et al 2014;Screen and Simmonds 2014). So the Arctic's influence on recent warming hiatus will be examined further in next section.…”

Section: Decadal Modulated Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…As suggested by Wallace et al (1995) and He et al (2014), the land-sea thermal contrast can excite feedbacks related with circulation and induces the transition between the pattern of "cold ocean and warm land" (COWL) and "warm ocean and cold land" (WOCL). In addition, some studies suggest the recent cold winters in Eurasian and North America were influenced by the accelerated Arctic warming and sea ice decline (Frolov et al 2009;Outten and Esau 2012;Zakharov 2013;Cohen et al 2014;Mori et al 2014;Screen and Simmonds 2014;Xie et al 2015). Response to these thermal forcing variation, the circulation over extratropical NH represented by the atmospheric pressure field has also changed, which was suggested to contribute much to the previous enhanced wintertime warming and recent warming hiatus (Wallace et al 2012;Guan et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2016

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, and the ZTF represents the asymmetry in temperatures between the extratropical large-scale warm and cold zones in the zonal direction. Via the different performance of combined MTF and ZTF, we found that the DMO's modulation effect on SAT was strongest when both weaker (stronger) MTF and stronger (weaker) ZTF occurred simultaneously. And the current hiatus is a result of a downward DMO combined with a weaker MTF and stronger ZTF, which stimulate both a weaker polar vortex and westerly winds, along with the amplified planetary waves, thereby facilitating southward invasion of cold Arctic-air and promoting the blocking formation. The results conclude that the DMO can not only be used to interpret the current warming hiatus, it also suggests that global warming will accelerate again when it swings upward.

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“…The atmospheric response to the Arctic sea ice reduction is thought to be Arctic warming and destabilization of the lower troposphere, increased cloudiness, and weakening of the poleward thickness gradient and polar jet stream (Francis et al 2009;Outten and Esau 2012). As the Arctic warms faster than lower latitudes (so-called Arctic Amplification), the meridional temperature gradient at higher latitudes is likely to weaken altering the polar jet stream according to thermal wind balance.…”

Section: Connection To Sea Ice and Snow Covermentioning

confidence: 99%

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

et al. 2015

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of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.Abstract The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies

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A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia

Cited by 118 publications

References 16 publications

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review

The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

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