The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

Huang, Jianping; Xie, Yongkun; Guan, Xiaodan; Li, Dongdong; Ji, Fei

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3085-8

Cited by 106 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(133 reference statements)

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“…Under high SIBPSL, however, the SIC forcing caused energy loss in the Barents Sea upstream of the Eurasian continent (Figure 4b). This dependence of the SIC forcing on the atmosphere background state noted above resembles the nonlinear shift between high and low index flow as a function of meridional temperature gradient shown in Huang et al (2017) using a conceptual model originally developed by Charney and DeVore (1979). This amplification pattern includes an anomalous meridional-oriented surface high that extends far into the Eurasian continent ( Figure 4d) associated with the upstream Barents Sea ice forcing.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 61%

Role of Arctic Sea Ice in the 2014–2015 Eurasian Warm Winter

Xie

Zhang

Liu

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Because of large internal variabilities, the role of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on regional climate cannot be easily separated. This study uses two groups of large ensemble atmospheric model simulations under climatological and observed SIC boundary conditions to investigate the role of SIC in the 2014–2015 December to February Eurasian warm winter (DJF15). It is shown that the SIC has large impact on the probability distribution function of the DJF15 temperature and pressure fields. The anomalous high Barents Sea ice during the 2014–2015 autumn and winter leads to significant shift in the probability distribution function skewness of the DJF15 surface temperature (from −0.13 to −0.48) and the related sea level pressure (from −0.18 to 0.32) that favor more occurrences of warm temperature anomaly and positive North Atlantic Oscillation‐like pattern. This asymmetry is consistent with anomalous forcing in phase with the anomalies of the sea level pressure field.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 61%

Role of Arctic Sea Ice in the 2014–2015 Eurasian Warm Winter

Xie

Zhang

Liu

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…For example, the PDO has two periodicities, one of 15–25 years and the other of 50–70 years (Mantua and Hare, ); the AMO has a 40–70‐year periodicity (Kerr, ), which overlaps the longer sub‐periodicity of the PDO; and the NAO has a larger spread in DM variability (Kerr, ; Li and Wang, ), which overlaps those of the PDO and AMO. Thus, we treat C 3– C 5 as an integrated component and use it to represent the total DM component (Wu et al , ; Huang et al , ). A simple multiple‐variant regression model can be constructed using observed AMO, PDO and NAO indices, as follows:

DM = a \times AMO + b \times PDO + c \times NAO + d .

…”

Section: Brief Diagnosis Of the Roles Of Different Timescale Componentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014–2016 global surface air temperatures

Zhang

Luo

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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We present an analysis of the global annual mean surface temperature anomaly in 2014, 2015, and 2016 based on five datasets of historical observational records of surface temperature. These three years are the three warmest on record in all but one of the datasets. The largest warming occurred over land, especially at high latitudes. Since the strong El Niño event that occurred in 2015/2016 was similar to the 1997/1998 El Niño, we compared the 2014–2016 period with 1998, the warmest year in the 20th century. The contribution to the annual mean surface temperature anomaly of climate variations at different time scales was assessed using ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Results based on the HadCRUT4 dataset suggest that the interannual component may have contributed an anomaly of −0.01°C in 2014, 0.12°C in 2015, and 0.06°C in 2016. These values are substantially lower than the contribution in 1998 (0.18°C). In comparison, the combined contribution of the decadal‐to‐multidecadal (DM) component and the long‐term warming trend was 0.64°C in 2014, 0.70°C in 2015, and 0.77°C in 2016, which are substantially greater than that in 1998 (0.41°C). Similar results were obtained using the other four datasets. The larger contribution from the DM component and the long‐term warming trend implies that warmer years like 2014–2016 may occur more frequently in the near future. We conclude that the so‐called warming hiatus has faded away.

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“…However, climate models designed to represent the physics and dynamics of the climate system project that GMST continued to rise in the early 2000s3. Dominant mechanisms proposed to understand the hiatus included the internal climate variability45678910 and ocean heat uptake and transport1112131415; however, the differences in the atmospheric footprint of recent warming slowdown remains unclear in terms of the dynamical and physical processes. Here, we use a process-resolving method to estimate the relative contributions of different processes to the trends of global mean tropospheric temperature.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

Liu

Zhou

2017

Sci Rep

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Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability.

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The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

Cited by 106 publications

References 66 publications

Role of Arctic Sea Ice in the 2014–2015 Eurasian Warm Winter

Role of Arctic Sea Ice in the 2014–2015 Eurasian Warm Winter

The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014–2016 global surface air temperatures

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

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