Abstract. Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach.Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunamisafe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimatedevacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a subnational scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%.The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.
In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. <br><br> The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources
Abstract. More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunamiprone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk.Within the framework of the GITEWS (GermanIndonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.
Indonesia has developed its forest reference emission level (FREL), using a historical reference period of 1990-2012. Based on official Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) data, this paper analyses gross deforestation rates and emissions from deforestation in the five provinces of the island of Kalimantan which occurred in the time after 2012, i.e. 2013 until 2015, and puts them in relation to the average annual deforestation and emission rates of each province in the reference period. Even though the overall linear trend of deforestation and emission rates in Kalimantan from 1990 until 2015 goes down, this trend is not reflected in all of the five provinces equally. West and North Kalimantan’s rates even seem to be on the rise. The potentials to achieve emission reduction targets thus remain unequal for each province in Kalimantan Island.
The paper outlines new research findings and hereof generated products in the field of earth observation and modeling technologies to support emergency response measures. Based on the recent earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan (March 2011) examples will be given for new methodological developments and products to support emergency response strategies more effectively.
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