Abstract. This study aims at creating a holistic conceptual approach systematizing the interrelation of (natural) hazards, vulnerability and risk. A general hierarchical risk meta-framework presents potentially affected components of a given system, such as its physical, demographic, social, economic, political or ecological spheres, depending on the particular hazard. Based on this general meta-framework, measurable indicators are specified for the system "urban area" as an example. This framework is used as an outline to identify the capabilities of remote sensing to contribute to the assessment of risk. Various indicators contributing to the outline utilizing diverse remote sensing data and methods are presented. Examples such as built-up density, main infrastructure or population distribution identify the capabilities of remote sensing within the holistic perspective of the framework. It is shown how indexing enables a multilayer analysis of the complex and small-scale urban landscape to take different types of spatial indicators into account to simulate concurrence. The result is an assessment of the spatial distribution of risks within an urban area in the case of an earthquake and its secondary threats, using an inductive method. The results show the principal capabilities of remote sensing to contribute to the identification of physical and demographic aspects of vulnerability, as well as provide indicators for the spatial distribution of natural hazards. Aspects of social, economic or political indicators represent limitations of remote sensing for an assessment complying with the holistic risk framework.
For the successful realization and productivity prediction of new hydrothermal projects in the South German Molasse Basin, the hydraulic matrix properties of the Upper Jurassic Malm reservoir have to be determined as accurately as possible. To obtain specific information on the distribution of the petrophysical parameters (e.g., rock density, porosity, and permeability) 363 samples of rare drilling cores from the reservoir northeast of Munich (wells Moosburg SC4 and Dingolfing FB) were investigated using different experimental methods. Additionally, porosity was calculated by a downhole resistivity log of a nearby borehole close to Munich for comparison and the attempt of transferability of the data set to other locations within the Central Molasse Basin. Core data were divided into groups of different stratigraphic and petrographic units to cover the heterogeneity of the carbonate aquifer and provide data ranges to improve reservoir and prediction models. Data for effective porosity show a high variance from 0.3 to 19.2% throughout this heterogeneous aquifer. Permeability measured on core samples is scattered over several orders of magnitude (10 −4-10 2 mD). Permeability models based on the porosity-permeability relationship were used to estimate permeability for the whole aquifer section and identify possible flow zones. A newly developed empirical model based on distinct lithofacies types allows a permeability estimation with a deviation < 10 mD. However, fractured, karstified, and vuggy zones occurring in this typically karstified, fractured, and porous reservoir cannot yet be taken into account by the model and result in an underestimation of permeability on reservoir scale. Overall, the dominant permeability trends can be mapped well using this model. For the regional transfer and the correlation of the results, a core-related porosity/ permeability log for the reservoir was compiled for a well close to Munich showing similarities to the core investigations. The validation of the regional transferability of the parameter set to other locations in the Molasse Basin was carried out by correlation with the interpreted log data of a well near Munich.
Abstract. Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach.Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunamisafe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimatedevacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a subnational scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%.The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.
In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia. <br><br> The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009). The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources
Fault zones in the Upper Jurassic aquifer of the North Alpine Foreland Basin are generally regions with possibly increased hydraulic properties. They are consequently often part of the geothermal exploration concepts in this area and a primary target for the drilling operation. Data from this aquifer, gathered in pump tests, however, show that only four out of 41 successful wells exhibit hydraulic proof for the presence of such a fault zone in terms of a bi-/linear flow regime. Besides technical effects, also the contrast in hydraulic properties itself, between fault zone and surrounding host rock, can prevent the detection of a fault zone in pump test data. This means a certain threshold has to be surpassed until its effects become clearly visible. A simplified realistic numerical model was constructed and calibrated with pressure data from an exploration site in the south of Munich. This model was then used to observe the presence of linear and bilinear flows in dependence on the Malm aquifers parameter space. Sampling the possible hydraulic property combinations with the help of an HPC (high-performance computing) cluster and automating the detection of the corresponding main flow type allowed to quantify the areas in parameter space where the fault zone-related flow regimes of interest are present. Through the investigation of more than 30,000 combinations between fault zone permeability, matrix permeability, fault zone storage, matrix storage and fault zone thickness, it was found that, in the parameter space of the Malm aquifer, a bilinear flow can be observed for the first time only if the matrix permeability is lower than 2.0 × 10 −13 m 2 , and a linear flow for matrix permeability values below 6.0 × 10 −14 m 2. Additionally, it was shown that fault zones, which have better hydraulic properties than the surrounding matrix, can indeed be hidden in pumping tests due to the parameter setting.
Abstract. More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunamiprone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk.Within the framework of the GITEWS (GermanIndonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.
In geothermal reservoir systems, changes in pore pressure due to production (depletion), injection or temperature changes result in a displacement of the effective stresses acting on the rock matrix of the aquifer. To compensate for these intrinsic stress changes, the rock matrix is subjected to poroelastic deformation through changes in rock and pore volume. This in turn may induce changes in the effective pore network and thus in the hydraulic properties of the aquifer. Therefore, for the conception of precise reservoir models and for long-term simulations, stress sensitivity of porosity and permeability is required for parametrization. Stress sensitivity was measured in hydrostatic compression tests on 14 samples of rock cores stemming from two boreholes of the Upper Jurassic Malm aquifer of the Bavarian Molasse Basin. To account for the heterogeneity of this carbonate sequence, typical rock and facies types representing the productive zones within the thermal reservoir were used. Prior to hydrostatic investigations, the hydraulic (effective porosity, permeability) and geomechanical (rock strength, dynamic, and static moduli) parameters as well as the microstructure (pore and pore throat size) of each rock sample were studied for thorough sample characterization. Subsequently, the samples were tested in a triaxial test setup with effective stresses of up to 28 MPa (hydrostatic) to simulate in-situ stress conditions for depths up to 2000 m. It was shown that stress sensitivity of the porosity was comparably low, resulting in a relative reduction of 0.7–2.1% at maximum effective stress. In contrast, relative permeability losses were observed in the range of 17.3–56.7% compared to the initial permeability at low effective stresses. Stress sensitivity coefficients for porosity and permeability were derived for characterization of each sample and the different rock types. For the stress sensitivity of porosity, a negative correlation with rock strength and a positive correlation with initial porosity was observed. The stress sensitivity of permeability is probably controlled by more complex processes than that of porosity, where the latter is mainly controlled by the compressibility of the pore space. It may depend more on the compaction of precedented flow paths and the geometry of pores and pore throats controlling the connectivity within the rock matrix. In general, limestone samples showed a higher stress sensitivity than dolomitic limestone or dolostones, because dolomitization of the rock matrix may lead to an increasing stiffness of the rock. Furthermore, the stress sensitivity is related to the history of burial diagenesis, during which changes in the pore network (dissolution, precipitation, and replacement of minerals and cements) as well as compaction and microcrack formation may occur. This study, in addition to improving the quality of input parameters for hydraulic–mechanical modeling, shows that hydraulic properties in flow zones largely characterized by less stiff, porous limestones can deteriorate significantly with increasing effective stress.
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