ASIRPA is an original and comprehensive approach for assessing the socioeconomic impact of PROs through case studies. The cases are theory-based, selected to characterize the diversity of the broader impacts, and standardized so as to allow the scaling-up of the analysis of impact to the level of the organization. ASIRPA is founded on well-tried tools and the added-value of the approach lies in the adaptation and combination of these tools to design a comprehensive approach, which has been tested in a real situation and proven to be robust, credible, and implementable.
In this paper, we analyze the insect resistance management (IRM) plan put in place by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to delay the evolution of resistance to Bt corn in natural populations of the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner. This IRM plan is the most impressive mandatory IRM system ever developed. It forms a coherent whole and includes mandatory refuges, actions to increase growers' compliance and a program for monitoring the evolution of resistance. However, our analysis suggests that two components of this IRM plan are not entirely satisfactory: growers' compliance and monitoring of the evolution of resistance. Moreover, the implementation of these two components of IRM has been required of the registrants, whose incentives for IRM are probably lower than the social optimum. Our analysis suggests that alternatives to the IRM plan currently in place could improve these two components.
The efficiency of molecular markers to improve genetic prediction has been proved by many studies. Nevertheless, the additional cost due to marker genotyping is seldom considered in the comparison between marker‐assisted selection (MAS) and phenotypic selection. In the context of plant breeding, the relative cost efficiency of MAS in the first cycle of selection is evaluated through an analytical approach taking into account the effect of the experimental design (population size, number of trials, and replications per trial) on quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection. The same global cost is assumed for both methods. In a first step, the optimal allocation of the experimental resources is studied for each method before comparing them at their optimum. For traits sensitive to genotype × environment interactions, unreplicated trials are optimal for both methods but the optimal number of trials is different. It increases with the investment for phenotypic selection while it becomes nearly equal to one for MAS. The loss of efficiency due to non‐optimal designs is evaluated. The expected economic return of MAS compared with phenotypic selection decreases with the cost of genotyping. When this cost is high, MAS interest is limited to traits with a low heritability, provided that the investment is high enough to evaluate a large population size, which is the necessary condition to explain with markers a large part of genetic variation. The maximal genotyping cost that is acceptable for MAS to be efficient is given for different values of investment and trait heritability.
A seasonal model, where a growing season is defined as the time between sowing and harvest and alternates with an inter-crop period, was derived to study the effects of the 'cost of virulence' and cropping ratio on durability of resistance. We assumed a single strain of virulent pathogen, a single strain of avirulent pathogen and two cultivars (one resistant and one susceptible) and studied two measures of durability of resistance ('take-over time' and 'usefulness time'). Take-over time is defined as the time needed for the virulent strain of the pathogen to reach a preset threshold and predominate over the previous pathogen population. Usefulness time is the time needed before the estimated gain in green canopy area duration per plant through the use of the resistant cultivar becomes negligible. The model suggested that, although it could take several seasons before the virulent strain of the pathogen predominated over the previous pathogen population, the usefulness time of the resistant cultivar was always much shorter. Furthermore, increasing selection for the virulent strain of the pathogen (through increasing the cropping ratio of the resistant cultivar) caused the virulent strain of the pathogen to invade the system more rapidly. Cost of virulence, reflecting differences in pathogen infection rates between the four possible combinations of cultivar/pathogen strain, significantly affected durability of resistance, with the dynamics of the virulent and avirulent strains ranging from a case where the virulent strain of the pathogen died out to a case where the virulent strain of the pathogen invaded the resident pathogen population. An intermediate state, where the system reached equilibrium and the virulent strain of the pathogen neither became predominant nor died out, was defined as 'coexistence' of both strains of the pathogen. Occurrence of coexistence was directly related to the cost of virulence since it did not occur when virulence of the pathogen did not have a fitness cost. Two methods to include cost of virulence in the model gave similar results in relation to the two measures of durability of resistance studied.
The evolution of resistance in insect pests will imperil the efficiency of transgenic insect-resistant crops. The currently advised strategy to delay resistance evolution is to plant non-toxic crops (refuges) in close proximity to plants engineered to express the toxic protein of the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). We seek answers to the question of how to induce growers to plant non-toxic crops. A first strategy, applied in the United States, is to require Bt growers to plant non-Bt refuges and control their compliance with requirements. We suggest that an alternative strategy is to make Bt seed more expensive by instituting a user fee, and we compare both strategies by integrating economic processes into a spatially explicit, population genetics model. Our results indicate that although both strategies may allow the sustainable management of the common pool of Bt-susceptibility alleles in pest populations, for the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) one of the most serious pests in the US corn belt, the fee strategy is less efficient than refuge requirements.
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