Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite‐collared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st‐century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest‐valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985–1995 (baseline) to a projected multi‐model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090–2099 (−68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985–1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090–2099 (−17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi‐model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985–2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long‐distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high‐latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

We provide an expansive analysis of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) circumpolar genetic variation during the last two decades of decline in their sea-ice habitat. We sought to evaluate whether their genetic diversity and structure have changed over this period of habitat decline, how their current genetic patterns compare with past patterns, and how genetic demography changed with ancient fluctuations in climate. Characterizing their circumpolar genetic structure using microsatellite data, we defined four clusters that largely correspond to current ecological and oceanographic factors: Eastern Polar Basin, Western Polar Basin, Canadian Archipelago and Southern Canada. We document evidence for recent (ca. last 1–3 generations) directional gene flow from Southern Canada and the Eastern Polar Basin towards the Canadian Archipelago, an area hypothesized to be a future refugium for polar bears as climate-induced habitat decline continues. Our data provide empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis. The direction of current gene flow differs from earlier patterns of gene flow in the Holocene. From analyses of mitochondrial DNA, the Canadian Archipelago cluster and the Barents Sea subpopulation within the Eastern Polar Basin cluster did not show signals of population expansion, suggesting these areas may have served also as past interglacial refugia. Mismatch analyses of mitochondrial DNA data from polar and the paraphyletic brown bear (U. arctos) uncovered offset signals in timing of population expansion between the two species, that are attributed to differential demographic responses to past climate cycling. Mitogenomic structure of polar bears was shallow and developed recently, in contrast to the multiple clades of brown bears. We found no genetic signatures of recent hybridization between the species in our large, circumpolar sample, suggesting that recently observed hybrids represent localized events. Documenting changes in subpopulation connectivity will allow polar nations to proactively adjust conservation actions to continuing decline in sea-ice habitat.

N. 2003. Functional responses in polar bear habitat selection. -Oikos 100: 112-124.Habitat selection may occur in situations in which animals experience a trade-off, e.g. between the use of habitats with abundant forage and the use of safer retreat habitats with little forage. Such trade-offs may yield relative habitat use conditional on the relative availability of the different habitat types, as proportional use of foraging habitat may exceed proportional availability when foraging habitat is scarce, but be less than availability when foraging habitat is abundant. Hence, trade-offs in habitat use may result in functional responses in habitat use (i.e. change in relative use with changing availability). We used logistic and log-linear models to model functional responses in female polar bear habitat use based on satellite telemetry data from two contiguous populations; one near shore inhabiting sea ice within fjords, and one inhabiting pelagic drift ice. Open ice, near the ice edge, is a highly dynamic habitat hypothesised to be important polar bear habitat due to high prey availability. In open ice-polar bears may experience a high energetic cost of movements and risk drifting away from the main ice field (i.e. trade off between feeding and energy saving or safety). If polar bears were constrained by ice dynamics we therefore predicted use of retreat habitats with greater ice coverage relative to habitats used for hunting. The polar bears demonstrated season and population specific functional responses in habitat use, likely reflecting seasonal and regional variation in use of retreat and foraging habitats. We suggest that in seasons with functional responses in habitat use, polar bear space use and population distribution may not be a mere reflection of prey availability but rather reflect the alternate allocation of time in hunting and retreat habitats.M. Mauritzen, Norwegian Polar Inst., Zool. Mus.,

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Adipose tissue samples from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were obtained by necropsy or biopsy between the spring of 1989 to the spring of 1993 from Wrangel Island in Russia, most of the range of the bear in North America, eastern Greenland, and Svalbard. Samples were divided into 16 regions corresponding as much as possible to known stocks or management zones. Concentrations of dieldrin (DIEL), 4,4'-DDE (DDE), sum of 16 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (sigma PCB), and sum of 11 chlordane-related compounds and metabolites (sigma CHL) were determined. In order to minimize the effect of age, only data for adults (320 bears age 5 years and older) was used to compare concentrations among regions. Concentrations of sigma PCB were 46% higher in adult males than females, and there was no significant trend with age. Concentrations of sigma CHL were 30% lower in adult males than females. Concentrations of sigma PCB, sigma CHL, and DDE in individual adult female bears were standardized to adult males using factors derived from the least-square means of each sex category, and geometric means of the standardized concentrations on a lipid weight basis were compared among regions. Median geometric mean standardized concentrations (lipid weight basis) and ranges among regions were as follows: sigma PCB, 5,942 (2,763-24,316) micrograms/kg; sigma CHL, 1,952 (727-4,632) micrograms/kg; DDE, 219 (52-560) micrograms/kg; DIEL, 157 (31-335) micrograms/kg. Geometric mean sigma PCB concentrations in bears from Svalbard, East Greenland, and the Arctic Ocean near Prince Patrick Island in Canada were similar (20,256-24,316 micrograms/kg) and significantly higher than most other areas. Atmospheric, oceanic, and ice transport, as well as ecological factors may contribute to these high concentrations of sigma PCB. sigma CHL was more uniformly distributed among regions than the other CHCs. Highest sigma CHL concentrations were found in southeastern Hudson Bay, which also had the highest DDE and DIEL concentrations. In general, concentrations of sigma CHL, DDE, and DIEL were higher in eastern than western regions, suggesting an influence of North American sources. Average sigma PCB concentrations in bears from the Canadian Arctic were similar to those in 1982-84, while average sigma CHL and DDE concentrations were 35-44% lower and DIEL was 90% lower. However, the significance of these temporal trends during the 1980s is not conclusive because of the problems of comparability of data.