BACKGROUND:Important risk factors for cutaneous melanoma (CM) are recognized, but
standardized scores for individual assessment must still be developed. OBJECTIVES:The objective of this study was to develop a risk score of CM for a Brazilian
sample. METHODS:To verify the estimates of the main risk factors for melanoma, derived from a
meta-analysis (Italian-based study), and externally validate them in a population
in southern Brazil by means of a case-control study. A total of 117 individuals
were evaluated. Different models were constructed combining the summary
coefficients of different risk factors, derived from the meta-analysis, multiplied
by the corresponding category of each variable for each participant according to a
mathematical expression. RESULTS:the variable that best predicted the risk of CM in the studied population was
hair color (AUC: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.62-0.79). Other important factors were freckles,
sunburn episodes, and skin and eye color. Consideration of other variables such as
common nevi, elastosis, family history, and premalignant lesions did not improve
the predictive ability of the models. CONCLUSION:The discriminating capacity of the proposed model proved to be superior or
comparable to that of previous risk models proposed for CM.
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