SummaryBackgroundLow-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.MethodsWe did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose–response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th–95th percentile 1·04–13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.FindingsIn the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10–1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00–1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03–1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15–1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03–1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91–0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0–≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100–≤200 g per week, >200–≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1–2 years, or 4–5 years, respectively.InterpretationIn current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being ...

The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration IMPORTANCE The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Age-and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths).Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.EXPOSURES A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESAll-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTSIn participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEMortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0•685 (95% CI 0•629-0•741) to 0•833 (0•783-0•882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

Adenosine triphosphate (ATP)-sensitive potassium (K(ATP)) channels are activated by various metabolic stresses, including hypoxia. The substantia nigra pars reticulata (SNr), the area with the highest expression of K(ATP) channels in the brain, plays a pivotal role in the control of seizures. Mutant mice lacking the Kir6.2 subunit of K(ATP) channels [knockout (KO) mice] were susceptible to generalized seizures after brief hypoxia. In normal mice, SNr neuron activity was inactivated during hypoxia by the opening of the postsynaptic K(ATP) channels, whereas in KO mice, the activity of these neurons was enhanced. K(ATP) channels exert a depressant effect on SNr neuronal activity during hypoxia and may be involved in the nigral protection mechanism against generalized seizures.

To examine the relation of triglycerides with coronary heart disease among populations with low mean total cholesterol, the authors conducted a 15.5-year prospective study ending in 1997 of 11,068 Japanese aged 40-69 years (4,452 men and 6,616 women with mean total cholesterol = 4.73 mmol/liter and 5.03 mmol/liter, respectively), initially free of coronary heart disease or stroke. There were 236 coronary heart disease events comprising 133 myocardial infarctions, 68 angina pectoris events, and 44 sudden cardiac deaths. The coronary heart disease incidence was greater in a dose-response manner across increasing quartiles of nonfasting triglycerides for both sexes. The multivariate relative risk of coronary heart disease adjusting for coronary risk factors and time since last meal associated with a 1-mmol/liter increase in triglycerides was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.53; p = 0.004) for men and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.75; p = 0.001) for women. The trend was similar for myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and sudden cardiac death. The relation of triglycerides with coronary heart disease was not influenced materially by total cholesterol levels or, in a subsample analysis (51% of total sample), by high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Nonfasting serum triglycerides predict the incidence of coronary heart disease among Japanese men and women who possess low mean values of total cholesterol. Further adjustment for high density lipoprotein cholesterol suggests an independent role of triglycerides on the coronary heart disease risk.

miological studies have reported positive associations between the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and plasma fibrinogen levels. Fibrinogen is the major coagulation protein in blood by mass, the precursor of fibrin, and an important determinant of blood viscosity and platelet aggregation. [38][39][40][41] Because fibrinogen levels can be reduced considerably by lifestyle interventions that also affect levels of established risk factors (such as regular exercise, smoking cessation, and moderate alcohol consumption), there is interest in the possibility that measurement (or modification) of fibrinogen may help in disease prediction or prevention. [38][39][40]42 A meta-analysis of published data from 18 such studies, involving about 4000 CHD cases, indicated a relative risk of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-2.0) per 1-g/L increase in plasma fibrinogen level. 43 However, such analyses are not able to provide detailed assessments of the nature of any independent association of fibrinogen level with CHD or with other vascular and nonvascular outcomes. [43][44][45] This meta-analysis differs from previous analyses in several ways that should increase its reliability and scientific value. First, it is large and comprehensive: the data comprise 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke events and 13 210 deaths (cause-*The Authors/Writing Committee, Authors/Members, and Other Members of the Fibrinogen Studies Collaboration are listed at the end of this article.

Objective To examine whether eating until full or eating quickly or combinations of these eating behaviours are associated with being overweight. Design and participants Cross sectional survey. Setting Two communities in Japan. Results 571 (50.9%) men and 1265 (58.4%) women self reported eating until full, and 523 (45.6%) men and 785 (36.3%) women self reported eating quickly. For both sexes the highest age adjusted mean values for height, weight, body mass index, and total energy intake were in the eating until full and eating quickly group compared with the not eating until full and not eating quickly group. The multivariable adjusted odds ratio of being overweight for eating until full was 2.00 (95% confidence interval 1.53 to 2.62) for men and 1.92 (1.53 to 2.40) for women and for eating quickly was 1.84 (1.42 to 2.38) for men and 2.09 (1.69 to 2.59) for women. The multivariable odds ratio of being overweight with both eating behaviours compared with neither was 3.13 (2.20 to 4.45) for men and 3.21 (2.41 to 4.29) for women. Conclusion Eating until full and eating quickly are associated with being overweight in Japanese men and women, and these eating behaviours combined may have a substantial impact on being overweight.

Disease surveillance and population surveys of risk characteristics in a northeast rural community of Japan (1965 census population, 7,030) are combined in an attempt to relate morbidity and risk factor trends for coronary heart disease and stroke during the last 2 decades. Between 1964 and 1983, the incidence of coronary heart disease (i.e., combined myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and sudden death) did not change significantly among men and women ages 40-69, and was lower than that for stroke. The incidence of all stroke declined about 60% for both men and women, ages 40-69, with a significant decrease in cerebral hemorrhage for both sexes and in cerebral infarction for men. Between 1963Between -1966Between and 1980Between -1983 upward shifts occurred in the means and distributions of serum total cholesterol and serum total protein in every age and sex group, primarily during the 1st decade. Age-adjusted mean cholesterol levels rose 22 mg/dl to the 1980-1983 mean of 179 mg/dl in men ages 40-69. In women ages 40-69, the mean rose 29 mg/dl to 192 mg/dl. Among nutrients, animal fat intake doubled in men ages 40-59 from 4.5% of daily calories in 1969 to 9.6% in 1980-1983. Animal protein intake also increased, from 5.8% to 7.1%. Most of this increase occurred between 1969 and 1972-1975 and may be attributable to an increased intake of meat, eggs and dairy products. From 1963From -1966From to 1980From -1983 relative weight index rose significantly for all age-sex groups except men ages 50-69. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels declined for every age-sex group, with a 15-mm Hg age-adjusted decrease in systolic, 4-mm Hg decrease in diastolic pressure among men ages 40-69, and a 11-mm Hg systolic and 4-mm Hg diastolic decrease for women. Two cohorts of men and women ages 40-69 at baseline were followed for disease incidence: an early cohort (2,257 persons) followed from 1963-1966 to 1973 and a later cohort (2,711 persons) followed from 1972-1975 to 1983. In these cohorts, significant risk prediction for cerebral hemorrhage and infarction was obtained with blood pressure level and end organ effects in the electrocardiogram and fundus photographs. Serum cholesterol was inversely associated with cerebral hemorrhage in the early cohort but not in the later. The reduced association of serum cholesterol in the later cohort may be due in part to the marked upward shift in means and distributions of serum cholesterol between these two periods and the lower power of the later analysis. (Circulation 1989;79:503-515) The frequency of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in populations is strongly related to the prevalence of hypertension and atherosclerosis, which are greatly influenced, in turn, by risk characteristics, related behaviors, and associated environmental factors.' Japan has recently experienced rapid change in living and eating patterns.2 This provides a unique opportunity to observe a natural experiment in which population risk may change.In an attempt to relate morbidity t...