This paper gives insight of the role of political stability in investigating the two competing hypotheses in Developing Eight Muslim countries, and also investigates whether conditional liaison between corruption and political stability matters or not. The empirical findings indicate that investment, population and political stability play positive role in promoting economic growth. Corruption not only impact growth but also influenced by the institutional quality that a nation experiences. Corruption acts as sands in the wheels in the nations having higher degree of political stability, and greases the wheels in less politically stable countries such as Nigeria and Pakistan. Thus, political stability is conducive to growth, as it reduces the social unrests, political turmoil, and encourages investment, and there by economic growth. JEL Classification: C30, D73, O43, P48 Keywords: Corruption, Economic Growth, Political Stability, Conditional Cooperation
Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is a fundamental human right and basic ingredient of public health. However, one of the major problems faced by developing countries in the twenty-first century is the lack of access to these facilities. Punjab is the most populous province of Pakistan with more than 50% of the country's population is no exception. Keeping in view its importance, the current study is an effort to investigate important determinants of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation in Punjab to ensure the provision of these services to the masses. Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Household data from 2017 to 2018 has been used for analysis. The results of a logistic regression model revealed that household media exposure, education level of household head, household wealth status, and ethnic background of the household head are some of the important determinants of household access to safe drinking water. For household access to improved sanitation, along with these factors, the role of social norms and place of residence are also important. Particularly, the role of social norms is very profound. Findings from the study suggest that efforts should be made to provide readily available media access, household education level needs to be enhanced, policies should be made to raise the living standard of the poorest households, and the social norm for the use of improved sanitation needs to be promoted.
This study evaluates the varying degree of predictability of commodities return through empirical analysis of AMH (Adaptive Market Hypothesis). We divide daily returns data (from 1996 to 2013) of commodities indices (Gold, Metal, Oil& Silver) into different crisis periods. We subject all the subsamples to linear/nonlinear tests to reveal how market efficiency (independency of returns) has behaved over time. All the linear (except variance ratio) and nonlinear tests are evident that commodity indices returns have been predictable (dependent) in some crisis periods while unpredictable (dependence) in the others thus consistent with the implication of AMH. Therefore, commodities markets are adaptive markets. The findings suggest the behavior of commodities’ markets is best explained by AMH than conventional/traditional EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis).
This paper examines the variation of agglomeration across districts over time in Punjab and analyses the effects of agglomeration on socio-economic outcomes in terms of social inclusion and efficiency of firms at the district level in Punjab. Earlier studies in this regard faced multiple problems since they used cross-sectional data. To bridge the gap, a newly constructed panel data from CMI is used. Factor Analysis technique is used to analyse socialinclusion variable, in addition to some other control variables as well. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with bootstrap technique (performed in R) is used to calculate district-wise firm efficiency. The study argues that agglomeration is a logical consequence of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through an increase in the economic activity in various districts of the province. The results show that district agglomeration has a positive effect on the average district-wise efficiency of firms and has a positive statistically significant relation with social inclusion. Interesting implications arise from results, setting up clusters in urbanised rather than highly urbanised areas under CPEC can be a game changer for the economy of Pakistan especially Punjab since it has significant potential positive effects on the economy of Punjab. JEL Classification: D62, I38, L52, R13 Keywords: Agglomeration, CPEC, Social Inclusion, Factor Analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency
This study uses panel co-integration methods and Granger causality examines to scrutinize the dynamic causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), renewable energy (RE), agriculture value added (AVA) and population for the thirteen developed and developing Asia Pacific countries (APCs) covering the period 2005-2017. The results evaluate in two ways: in the short-run, Granger causality test (GCT) is operating from AVA to GDP and express bidirectional causation among GDP and agriculture. In the distant future, there is causality from RE and Population to CO2emissions. The short-run causality is important due to the agriculture sector which causes in boosting GDP while economic development, population and clean energy (including waste and combustible) raise CO2 emissions causes in the reduction of production and services. The research finds out that reduction in AVA, GDP increase, uncontrolled population and lack of attention on clean energy are interrelated in creating emissions. Policy recommendation insights that Asian Pacific establishments should control the population, less use of fossil fuel, encourage clean energy technologies such as solar and wind to fight with global warming.
Oil prices not only affect the agricultural commodity directly but also indirectly through different channels. However, among these channels, the most important is the channel of exchange rate. The reason for putting emphasis on the mediating role of exchange rate between the oil prices and food prices nexus is that the oilimporting counties like Pakistan pay their import bills in terms of foreign currency in the international market which as a result escalates the demand for foreign currency in oil-importing countries. This study has analyzed the indirect influence of oil prices on food prices via exchange rate. We developed a Composite Index (CI) of the agricultural commodity prices including wheat, cotton, rice, gram, sugar cane, and maize. This index is generated by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Further, to construct our econometric model, we used mediation approach by applying Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model. The results indicate a positive relationship between exchange rate and prices of oil. We also found the same relationship between exchange rate and the food prices. In addition to this, we witnessed positive effects of prices of oil on the food prices in the presence of exchange rate. Our study confirms that exchange rate partially mediates between the nexus of oil prices and food prices. Our analysis explains the impact of oil price on agricultural commodity prices through the channel of exchange rate by using time series data of Pakistan.
Purpose of the study: This study aims to analyze the short-run and as well as long-run effects of public debt on the economy of South Asian countries. And to resolve problems in managing and servicing their massive public debt obligations. Methodology: For econometrically investigation, panel data has been used for the era of 1990-2019. For obtaining econometric outcomes, we applied the Fixed Effect Model and PMG/ Panel ARDL. Main Findings: The results revealed that public debt negatively affected the economic performance of these countries. This effect is adverse both in short as well as in long period. Applications of this study: The study can be effective for simultaneous achievement of the desirable level of economic growth and public debt stock seems to be difficult and could remain elusive if some serious measures have not been taken. Novelty/Originality of this study: The study recommends the efficient and productive utilization of borrowed funds to avoid their negative repercussions.
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