No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

The ripple effect could occur when a disruption in supplier base cannot be localised and its consequences propagate downstream the supply chain (SC) adversely affecting the performance. While stress-testing of SC designs and assessment of their vulnerability to disruptions in single-echelon-single-event setting is desirable and indeed critical for some firms, modeling the ripple effect impact in multi-echelon-correlated-events systems is becoming increasingly important. Notably, ripple effect assessment in multi-stage SCs is particularly challenged by consideration of both vulnerability and recoverability capabilities at individual firms in the network. We construct a new model based on integrating Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model to quantify the ripple effect. We use DTMC to model the recovery and vulnerability of suppliers. The proposed DTMC model is then equalized with a DBN model in order to simulate the propagation behavior of supplier disruption in the SC. Finally, we propose a metric that quantifies the ripple effect of supplier disruption on manufacturer in terms of total expected utility and service level. The ripple effect measure constructed is examined and tested using two case-studies. The findings suggest that our model can be of value in revealing latent high-risk paths in the SC, analysing the performance impact of both a disruption and its propagation, and prioritizing the contingency and recovery policies.

No abstract