On the basis of the mean volume of annual water levels of 25 lakes (9 Belarusian and 16 Polish) over a period of 55 years (1956-2010) spectral time analysis of water fluctuations has been executed. The choice of the lakes was based on two factors, i.e. the continuous period of observation and insignificant anthropogenic influence. The complex analysis of water level fluctuation cycles has shown that for Belarus the cycles observed most often were 3, 5 and 10-year cycles. Polish lakes also have three cycles, but in the majority of them they amount to 5 and 10-years. It can be assumed that this is impacted by the continental climate growing to the east. Most probably it is one of the key factors defining the diversity of water fluctuations in all the analyzed lakes.
The research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.
as a result of the conducted investigations of the level fl uctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to fi nd out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fl uctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fl uctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.
The optimal number of hydrological monitoring stations for the annual values, the maximum spring, the minimum summerautumn and the minimum winter river runoff in Belarus is determined. The research on optimization of the hydrological network of Belarus led to a conclusion about the optimum number of hydrological stations in the country, but in the case of observing the values of the annual runoff, the number of the existing plants is the minimum necessary, and reducing their number is inadmissible. On the basis of trends in air temperature changes, precipitation and humidity deficits from 1985 to 2009, the forecasts of these parameters are prepared until 2020. Taking into account the models of climatic parameter change, a possible change in the water regime of the rivers in the future is investigated.
The time variability features of the intra-annual runoff distribution in the Pripyat River basin at the present stage are considered. The study used data from 10 active gauging-stations at the basin area for the period of enabled observations. Changes in the nature of natural runoff regulation of rivers are shown. An increase in the coefficient of natural runoff regulation after the period 1970-1983 for the rivers of the Pripyat River basin was revealed. The relationship between the coefficient of uneven runoff and the share of spring flood was established.
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