Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Abstract

as a result of the conducted investigations of the level fl uctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to fi nd out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fl uctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fl uctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.

Spectral–time analysis of cycle fluctuations in lake water levels in Belarus and Poland

“…Although water reservoirs are shaped under climate and natural conditions, anthropogenic impact is becoming more and more significant and in many cases it can be compared to a natural process persisting in the water regime. With sufficient information on water levels from many years of observation it is possible, owing to current information available and data processing, to show changes in water levels in lakes in a different way to that of previous years (Choiński et al 2016;Kirvel et al 2016).…”

Intra-annual Runoff Distribution in the Pripyat River Basin

“…Previously, we performed the assessment of water resources of the Republic of Belarus in the beginning of 20th century [18]. Modelling of the water regime in Belarus was carried out on the basis of mathematical models [19].…”