Assessment of changes in the Viliya River runoff in the territory of Belarus

Abstract

The research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.

Environmental Risks of Water Resources in the Belarusian Polesie

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Spectral–time analysis of cycle fluctuations in lake water levels in Belarus and Poland

“…Research studies on dynamics, in this case water fluctuation levels in time, transformation of water regime and hydrological regionalization should aim at water level change prognosis in lakes in the future (Volchak and Kirvel 2013;Volchak and Parfomuk 2018).…”

Intra-annual Runoff Distribution in the Pripyat River Basin

“…The task of analysis and subsequent modelling of water resources is one of the most important for the state [6]. Water resources analysis was conducted in terms of studying the water regime of rivers, lakes and reservoirs.…”