Prompted by the large heterogeneity of individual results in obesity treatment, many studies have attempted to predict weight outcomes from information collected from participants before they start the programme. Identifying significant predictors of weight loss outcomes is central to improving treatments for obesity, as it could help professionals focus efforts on those most likely to benefit, suggest supplementary or alternative treatments for those less likely to succeed, and help in matching individuals to different treatments. To date, however, research efforts have resulted in weak predictive models with limited practical usefulness. The two primary goals of this article are to review the best individual-level psychosocial pre-treatment predictors of short- and long-term (1 year or more) weight loss and to identify research needs and propose directions for further work in this area. Results from original studies published since 1995 show that few previous weight loss attempts and an autonomous, self-motivated cognitive style are the best prospective predictors of successful weight management. In the more obese samples, higher initial body mass index (BMI) may also be correlated with larger absolute weight losses. Several variables, including binge eating, eating disinhibition and restraint, and depression/mood clearly do not predict treatment outcomes, when assessed before treatment. Importantly, for a considerable number of psychosocial constructs (e.g. eating self-efficacy, body image, self-esteem, outcome expectancies, weight-specific quality of life and several variables related to exercise), evidence is suggestive but inconsistent or too scant for an informed conclusion to be drawn. Results are discussed in the context of past and present conceptual and methodological limitations, and several future research directions are described.

OBJECTIVE: This study analyzed baseline behavioral and psychosocial differences between successful and nonsuccessful participants in a behavioral weight management program. Success was defined by commonly used health-related criteria (5% weight loss). Noncompletion was also used as a marker of a failed attempt at weight control. SUBJECTS: A total of 158 healthy overweight and obese women (age, 48.074.5 y; BMI, 31.073.8 kg/m 2 ; body fat, 44.575.3%). INTERVENTION: Subjects participated in a 16-week lifestyle weight loss program consisting of group-based behavior therapy to improve diet and increase physical activity, and were followed for 1 y after treatment. METHODS: At baseline, all women completed a comprehensive behavioral and psychosocial battery assessing dieting/weight history, dietary intake and eating behaviors, exercise, self-efficacy, outcome evaluations, body image, and other variables considered relevant for weight management. Participants who maintained a weight loss of 5% or more at 16 months (or 10% or more of initial fat mass) were classified as successful. Nonsuccessful participants were those who dropped out and completers who had not lost weight at follow-up. RESULTS: Of all participants, 30% (n ¼ 47) did not complete initial treatment and/or missed follow-up assessments (noncompleters). Noncompletion was independently associated with more previous weight loss attempts, poorer quality of life, more stringent weight outcome evaluations, and lower reported carbohydrate intake at baseline. In logistic regression, completion status was predicted correctly in 84% of all cases (w 2 ¼ 45.5, Po0.001), using baseline information only. Additional predictors of attrition were initial weight, exercise minutes, fiber intake, binge eating, psychological health, and body image. A large variation in weight loss/maintenance results was observed (range: 37.2 kg for 16-month weight change). Independent baseline predictors of success at 16 months were more moderate weight outcome evaluations, lower level of previous dieting, higher exercise self-efficacy, and smaller waist-to-hip ratio. Success status at follow-up was predicted correctly in 74% of all starting cases (w 2 ¼ 33.6, Po0.001). CONCLUSION: Psychosocial and behavioral variables (eg, dieting history, dietary intake, outcome evaluations, exercise selfefficacy, and quality of life) may be useful as pretreatment predictors of success level and/or attrition in previously overweight and mildly obese women who volunteer for behavioral weight control programs. These factors can be used in developing readiness profiles for weight management, a potentially important tool to address the issue of low success/completion rates in the current management of obesity.

Background/ObjectivesPhysical activity (PA) protects against a wide range of diseases. Habitual PA appears to be heritable, motivating the search for specific genetic variants that may inform efforts to promote PA and target the best type of PA for each individual.Subjects/MethodsWe used data from the UK Biobank to perform the largest genome-wide association study of PA to date, using three measures based on self-report (nmax=377,234) and two measures based on wrist-worn accelerometry data (nmax=91,084). We examined genetic correlations of PA with other traits and diseases, as well as tissue-specific gene expression patterns. With data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC; n=8,556) study, we performed a meta-analysis of our top hits for moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA).ResultsWe identified ten loci across all PA measures that were significant in both a basic and a fully adjusted model (p<5 × 10−9). Upon meta-analysis of the nine top hits for MVPA with results from ARIC, eight were genome-wide significant. Interestingly, among these, the rs429358 variant in the APOE gene was the most strongly associated with MVPA, whereby the allele associated with higher Alzheimer’s risk was associated with greater MVPA. However, we were not able to rule out possible selection bias underlying this result. Variants in CADM2, a gene previously implicated in obesity, risk-taking behavior and other traits, were found to be associated with habitual PA. We also identified three loci consistently associated (p<5 × 10−5) with PA across both self-report and accelerometry, including CADM2. We find genetic correlations of PA with educational attainment, chronotype, psychiatric traits, and obesity-related traits. Tissue enrichment analyses implicate the brain and pituitary gland as locations where PA-associated loci may exert their actions.ConclusionsThese results provide new insight into the genetic basis of habitual PA, and the genetic links connecting PA with other traits and diseases.

Objectives The aim was to examine the independent and joint associations of sitting time and physical activity with risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Background Sedentary behavior is recognized as a distinct construct beyond lack of leisure-time physical activity, but limited data exists on the interrelationship between these two components of energy balance. Methods Participants in the prospective Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (N = 71,018), aged 50–79 and free of CVD at baseline (1993–1998), provided information on sedentary behavior, defined as hours of sitting per day, and usual physical activity at baseline and during follow-up through September 2010. First CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) events were centrally adjudicated. Results Sitting ≥ 10 hours/day compared to ≤ 5 hours/day was associated with increased CVD risk (HR=1.18, 95% CI 1.09, 1.29) in multivariable models including physical activity. Low physical activity was also associated with higher CVD risk (P, trend <0.001). When women were cross-classified by sitting time and physical activity (P, interaction = 0.94), CVD risk was highest in inactive women (≤1.7 MET-hrs/week) who also reported ≥10 hrs/day of sitting. Results were similar for CHD and stroke when examined separately. Associations between prolonged sitting and risk of CVD were stronger in overweight versus normal weight women and women aged 70 years and older compared to younger women. Conclusions Prolonged sitting time was associated with increased CVD risk, independent of leisure-time physical activity, in postmenopausal women without a history of CVD. A combination of low physical activity and prolonged sitting augments CVD risk.

The whole-body

The purposes of this study were to develop and cross-validate the "best" prediction equations for estimating fat-free body mass (FFB) from bioelectrical impedance in children and youth. Predictor variables included height2/resistance (RI) and RI with anthropometric data. FFB was determined from body density (underwater weighing) and body water (deuterium dilution) (FFB-DW) and from age-corrected density equations, which account for variations in FFB water and bone content. Prediction equations were developed using multiple regression analyses in the validation sample (n = 94) and cross-validated in three other samples (n = 131). R2 and standard error of the estimate (SEE) values ranged from 0.80 to 0.95 and 1.3 to 3.7 kg, respectively. The four samples were then combined to develop a recommended equation for estimating FFB from three regression models. R2 and SEE values and coefficients of variation from these regression equations ranged from 0.91 to 0.95, 2.1 to 2.9 kg, and 5.1 to 7.0%, respectively. As a result of all cross-validation analyses, we recommend the equation FFB-DW = 0.61 RI + 0.25 body weight + 1.31, with a SEE of 2.1 kg and adjusted R2 of 0.95. This study demonstrated that RI with body weight can predict FFB with good accuracy in Whites 10-19 yr old.

The results suggest that triceps skinfold thickness gives the best results for obesity screening in adolescents aged 10-15 y. BMI and upper arm girth were reasonable alternatives, except in 14-15-y-old boys, in whom both indexes were only marginally able to discriminate obesity.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare weight regain in a group of perimenopausal women (48.0 ± 4.4 years old), randomized to a 12-month weight maintenance Internet intervention or to self-directed weight maintenance after a 4-month weight loss treatment. Methods and Procedures: After a 4-month behavioral weight loss program, 135 women were randomized to either Internet or self-directed groups. The Internet group (n = 66) used a website to gain information and complete logs concerning their weight, diet, and exercise progress over a 12-month follow-up. The 69 self-directed women had no contact with study staff. All women were measured for weight and body composition, and diet intake, and were interviewed using the 7-day physical activity questionnaires at baseline, 4 months, and 16 months. Results: At the end of the 12-month follow-up, the Internet and self-directed groups had regained on average 0.4 ± 5.0 kg and 0.6 ± 4.0 kg, respectively (P = 0.5). In within-group analyses, Internet diet-log entries were correlated with follow-up weight change (r = −0.29; P < 0.05) and moderately with change in exercise energy expenditure (EEE; r = 0.44; P < 0.01). Follow-up weight change was not correlated with change in dietary intake. Discussion: While significant weight loss was maintained over follow-up by both groups of women, Internet use did not surpass self-direction in helping to sustain weight loss. Among Internet users, Internet use was related to weight change and EEE.