Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
Abstract. We used count surveys and mist-net captures to compare habitat associations, relative abundance, species richness, and community similarity of migrant landbirds among four major habitats in the Boise Foothills of southwestern Idaho. Count surveys were conducted from August through October 1997-2000 in conifer forest, mountain shrubland, shrubsteppe, and riparian shrubland. We compared bird detections among habitats for all birds pooled, individual species, and three migration strategies: Neotropical, temperate, and resident (including irruptive migrants). Mountain shrubland supported the highest numbers of temperate migrants; both mountain shrubland and riparian shrubland had the highest numbers of Neotropical migrants; and conifer forest had the highest numbers of residents. Species richness was highest in riparian shrubland and lowest in shrubsteppe, whereas diversity and evenness were highest in conifer forest and mountain shrubland. Mist netting was conducted from mid-July to mid-October in two habitats: mountain shrubland (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002) and riparian shrubland (1998)(1999). Captures (adjusted for effort) were compared among habitats in 1998-1999 and were similar for temperate migrants, whereas mountain shrubland had higher abundance of Neotropical migrants and riparian shrubland had higher abundance of irruptive migrants. Richness, diversity, and evenness were similar and there was high community similarity between mountain shrub and riparian shrubland habitats. These results emphasize the importance of montane habitats, especially deciduous shrub communities, to migrants in the Intermountain West.
Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.
Black‐headed Grosbeaks (Pheucticus melanocephalus) have been observed to undergo prebasic molt during fall in the North American Monsoon region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, but it is unknown whether molt migration is pervasive across populations of the species. During the 2014 breeding season, we GPS‐tagged (where GPS is global positioning system) nine adult Black‐headed Grosbeaks in Yosemite National Park with archival GPS tags to determine specific locations where grosbeaks breeding in Yosemite spent portions of the non‐breeding season, and to assess whether those locations were consistent with molt migration. On 2 June 2015, one of these birds, a male GPS‐tagged on 19 June 2014, was recaptured with its GPS unit still attached. Data downloaded from the unit revealed that, by 20 August 2014, the bird had moved 1300 km from Yosemite National Park to Sonora, Mexico, where it remained until at least 15 October 2014. By 24 November 2014, the grosbeak had moved >1300 m from Sonora to the Michoacán‐Jalisco border region, where it remained until the last GPS‐determined location was obtained on 24 March 2015. The seasonal timing of these movements and the length of stay in Sonora are consistent with the expected behavior of a molt‐migrating bird. Remote‐sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data indicated that the grosbeak arrived in the monsoon region near the area's annual peak in EVI, and then, as the index was declining sharply, departed for the Michoacán‐Jalisco region, where the index also declined during the same period, but substantially less so than in Sonora. Climate change in the coming decades is expected to delay the annual onset of the monsoon while also accelerating the initiation of arid, summer‐like conditions throughout much of western North America, possibly yielding a temporal mismatch between fall migration and the monsoon‐driven conditions that may be critical for molt‐migrating birds.
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